Germany

Germany gives DSV a sweet deal on freight takeover

12 Sep 2024

The Danish group will acquire Schenker, the logistics arm of indebted German railway operator Deutsche Bahn, for 14 bln euros, beating a higher CVC offer. Berlin may be hoping that an industry player will be a more stable owner. But DSV’s share price jump shows it got a bargain.

Orcel uses hammer to unpick UniCredit-Commerz lock

11 Sep 2024

The Italian bank’s CEO is eyeing a full takeover of the $16 bln German lender. Andrea Orcel is taking a blunter route than past M&A talks between the two banks, which used structures like a Frankfurt-listed subsidiary to appease Berlin. His way is more rewarding, but riskier.

VW row flags Germany’s creaking corporate model

5 Sep 2024

The $55 bln carmaker is battling unions as it tries to deepen a $11 bln cost-cutting programme. A complex shareholder base makes agreement harder. Such feuds are becoming more common as German consensus-driven governance faces a weak economy, trade wars and climate change.

Germany gets timing wrong with Commerzbank sale

4 Sep 2024

At first glance, the decision to offload shares in the 16 bln euro lender seems smart given a 130% share-price jump in three years. But the valuation is still low. And if long-rumoured M&A materialises, Berlin will forego its special influence and miss out on a takeover premium.

Deutsche’s UK broking adventure takes early detour

3 Sep 2024

The German bank’s $500 mln acquisition of Numis brought relationships with London-listed firms like Rightmove. Now it’s suspended work with the property portal after opting to advise Rupert Murdoch’s REA on a possible bid. Other UK clients may discount future claims of loyalty.

Far-right’s vote win is a loss for German economy

2 Sep 2024

PM Olaf Scholz’s coalition parties got trounced in regional elections, with the extreme right-wing AfD winning more than 30% in Thuringia and Saxony. That could prompt Berlin to double down on fiscal discipline and tighten immigration rules, deepening the country’s growth woes.

Deutsche’s legal seesaw flags investor blind spot

22 Aug 2024

The German lender shocked shareholders in April by setting aside 1.3 bln euros for a 14-year-old Postbank M&A case, only to settle with most plaintiffs for half the claimed amount. It’s a case study in the opacity of bank legal risks, which plays into the sector’s value discount.

Europe’s dealmakers begin tough redemption journey

19 Aug 2024

The market share of BNP, Barclays, UBS, SocGen and Deutsche seems to have troughed at around 8% in M&A and 6% in equity underwriting. The days of ever-increasing US dominance may be over. Getting investors to attach more value to these volatile units, though, is the harder job.

Power grids’ low-wattage resources may spark M&A

13 Aug 2024

European electric utilities have to invest big to meet rising demand. Yet balance sheets are laden with debt and raising equity is tough. Some will have to sell assets, or whole companies. Iberdrola’s $5 bln acquisition of a UK peer at a decent premium could be the first of many.

Flying PIIGS nations stir rethink in Europe’s core

12 Aug 2024

Former crisis economies like Spain, Greece and Italy have outpaced France and Germany by up to 20% since the pandemic. Lower exposure to manufacturing, a tourism boom and Brussels funds all helped. The role reversal may push Berlin to tolerate looser fiscal and monetary policy.

Continental breakup tracks novel M&A route

6 Aug 2024

The 11 bln euro manufacturer is considering spinning off its struggling auto parts unit. That should help reveal its healthier tyres division’s hidden value. The automotive sector’s need to cut costs to face the green transition may entice suitors for both businesses.

Airlines’ margins head to lower cruising altitude

2 Aug 2024

Carriers from $2 bln Air France-KLM to $7 bln Lufthansa reported healthy demand in the first half of 2024. But earnings are falling as expenses bite. With the switch to sustainable aviation fuel threatening to push costs ever higher, investors are bracing for smaller margins.

Volkswagen’s restart faces further roadblocks

1 Aug 2024

The bloated $56 bln German carmaker is cutting costs further, as it tries to hit bold profit targets. CEO Oliver Blume’s 6.3% operating margin is better than it looks. But Chinese competition and stringent carbon targets make for a tricky road ahead.

Carmakers strain to navigate the next swerves

1 Aug 2024

After responding to the unexpected success of $720 bln Tesla, older manufacturers now face rising China exports amid slower EV growth. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how GM, VW and others – including governments – are handling the nascent trade war.

Euro-banks offer glimpse of possible bad-debt wave

24 Jul 2024

Deutsche upped its forecast loan-loss charge, contributing to a 7% share-price fall. BNP’s default provision spiked, and UniCredit’s has too in Germany. Most of the bad news relates to just a few specific corporate clients. But there will be more if rates stay higher for longer.

Porsche looks stuck in rival Ferrari’s slipstream

24 Jul 2024

The 64 bln euro group’s shares have stalled since a 2022 float, and its valuation trails the Italian group by miles. Competition in China and production snafus may hold it back. The risk is that investors value the 911 maker like a normal carmaker, rather than a luxury group.

Bosch’s US deal blows cold air on EU growth

23 Jul 2024

The German industrial group is paying $8 bln to buy air-conditioning businesses from conglomerate Johnson Controls. The valuation looks good compared to where peers trade. For American castoffs to attract such a heavy capital outlay, however, is a bad omen for Europe’s prospects.

Boeing and Airbus headwinds are hard to escape

23 Jul 2024

The troubled US jet maker and its European rival aren’t delivering as many planes as customers want. On this Exchange podcast, AirInsight co-founder Addison Schonland explains how some problems stretch back to Covid, whether a third player can break the duopoly, and much more.

Public investment dearth is Europe’s growth killer

17 Jul 2024

Germany will spend a paltry 0.15% of GDP on new government-backed projects in 2025. Other European countries are tightening their belts for fear of having to raise taxes. But failing to invest enough in the green transition, infrastructure or defence will cripple their economies.

European boards have too little skin in the game

17 Jul 2024

Non-executive directors at big US companies get 60% of their pay in equity. That’s rare in Britain, France and Germany, where many board members own a slither of stock. Cash fees warp incentives, discourage engagement, and risk making Europe’s capital markets less competitive.