Germany

Trump and Tesla will turbocharge self-driving race

23 Dec 2024

The incoming president could speed up the development of autonomous driving tech in the US. Elon Musk’s marque is poised to reap the rewards in what could be a $400 bln global market. Stragglers, like China’s BYD, will have to play catchup with a flurry of deals and partnerships.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.

Green energy will be a smart contrarian trade

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s dislike of offshore wind and threats to axe subsidies imply the renewable sector is one to swerve in 2025. Yet the US president-elect is primarily focused on keeping energy costs low. If permitting gets sped up, Big Tech-driven demand could help green power too.

Delivery Hero investors’ meal is stuck in traffic

13 Dec 2024

Shares in the $9.5 bln online takeaway group have dipped since it sold a $2 bln stake in its Middle East unit through a Dubai IPO. CEO Niklas Östberg can now cut net debt, but many of his businesses still burn cash. A more comprehensive breakup may be the best option on the menu.

Berlin can curb but not stop a Romania-TikTok mess

12 Dec 2024

The app is under scrutiny for enabling meddling in Bucharest’s elections. Given a blanket TikTok ban is beyond the EU’s remit, Germany’s February poll may go the same way. Yet Berlin could also coordinate better with tech platforms ahead of time – which Romania didn’t.

Gulf wealth funds and F1 is a union with mileage

5 Dec 2024

QIA’s acquisition of a 30% stake in the Audi team means Qatar has joined Bahrain in owning a Formula One outfit. With new F1 rules capping team costs, big pots of capital are increasingly interested in the space. That could see the likes of Saudi’s PIF strike similar deals.

Tycoons’ odd telco bets mask a greater logic

26 Nov 2024

In recent years high-profile, rich investors like Carlos Slim have snapped up stakes in the likes of $19 bln BT. These haven’t always yielded juicy returns, nor prompted strategic shifts. But as a bet on much-needed consolidation, they may yet end up looking smart.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

Siemens Energy’s vicious circle becomes virtuous

13 Nov 2024

The $35 bln German group surged 20% after it revealed punchy 2028 targets. For years, troubles in its wind unit obscured Siemens Energy’s status as a green transition winner. While these aren’t all fixed, the company looks cheap if CEO Christian Bruch can hit his new goals.

Gulf IPO may be Delivery Hero’s only tasty morsel

11 Nov 2024

The Frankfurt-listed group is selling 15% of Talabat in Dubai. A potential $13 bln valuation would mean an arm with a third of its sales is worth more than Delivery Hero itself. Yet beyond the Gulf, a value-boosting breakup looks hard given the business overall makes a loss.

European airlines’ tough summer adds to M&A logic

11 Nov 2024

Carriers such as $8 bln Lufthansa and $2 bln Air France-KLM saw rising costs and competition on Eastern routes from Chinese rivals. The logical response for EU players is to look West instead. Bidding for Portugal’s state-owned TAP would drive much-needed consolidation.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

German government meltdown has a silver lining

7 Nov 2024

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner after a budget dispute. It’s a bad time for political upheaval in Europe’s biggest economy. But making it more possible to loosen the absurd ‘debt brake’ may give Germany a freer hand on key areas like defence.

German M&A flurry is powered by lasting tailwinds

4 Nov 2024

Teutonic deal volumes are below their 2021 peak, like everywhere else. Yet a burst of activity, including the $15 bln privatisation of DB Schenker and $16 bln Covestro sale, show signs of life. Radical changes to the country’s industrial model imply an enduring rebound.

Siemens AI deal is baby step to higher share price

31 Oct 2024

The German trains-to-robot maker is buying simulation group Altair for $10 bln. The rich transaction will take years to pay off. But Siemens’ fast-growing software unit gains scale. Shareholders may give Siemens a higher valuation if CEO Roland Busch opts for a bigger breakup.

Grim VW numbers give CEO a mandate for shake-up

30 Oct 2024

The 46 bln euro carmaker reported a 21% year-on-year operating profit slump in the first nine months of 2024. That may help boss Oliver Blume push through a restructuring of its ailing core brand. It’s a necessary but risky move, and other problems, like China, are getting worse.

Axel Springer boss is media’s key consolidator

28 Oct 2024

Mathias Döpfner will soon have up to 4 bln euros to spend on M&A. If the long-term Axel Springer boss is just after storied brands, Murdoch assets like Dow Jones may be in play. But with the obvious targets tricky to pull off, he may equally train his sights on AI or data.

German IPO gives buyout shops scant cause to cheer

4 Oct 2024

Academic publisher Springer Nature rose 7% on its Frankfurt debut. But it had been offered at a tangible discount to help owner BC Partners offload a long-held stake. Private equity sellers in a similar position won’t get much encouragement to take the plunge too.

ADNOC German deal is blueprint for Gulf takeovers

1 Oct 2024

The UAE energy giant agreed to buy chemicals group Covestro for $16 bln including debt. It’s paying a big premium, retaining management and injecting extra capital. The terms are a sign of the hoops Middle Eastern buyers must jump through to get hold of sensitive European assets.

Autos’ car crash ups the likelihood of EU airbags

30 Sep 2024

Stellantis and Volkswagen delivered big profit warnings, amid falling demand for cars. Their woes may encourage policymakers to vote through tariffs on Chinese rivals and go easy on EU carbon fines. But falling output and strained consumers mean carmakers need self-help too.