Germany

SAP share-price surge may have a short shelf life

1 Apr 2025

The $313 bln German software group overtook Novo Nordisk as the largest listed European company by market capitalisation. But CEO Christian Klein is benefitting from a forced, and overdue, client migration to the cloud. The future after that process ends looks a lot fuzzier.

Berlusconis’ German M&A only partly eases TV bind

27 Mar 2025

The Italian family’s firm MFE has offered to buy the outstanding shares of its $1.5 bln rival ProSieben. Bulking up has a certain logic when TV is declining, provided the target accepts the cheap offer. But it ultimately won’t stem the outflow of viewers and advertisers.

ECB bank snub is good for Orcel, bad for M&A bulls

26 Mar 2025

The supervisor has queried Banco BPM’s use of the ‘Danish Compromise’ in its swoop on fund group Anima. That’s bad for the acquirer. But it’s good for UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel, who wants to buy BPM – and for those who want M&A to be based on logic, not capital arbitrage.

RWE typifies corporate Europe’s investment dilemma

24 Mar 2025

The $26 bln German energy group is scaling back US green projects to help save $11 bln. Activist Elliott wants the money spent on buybacks, but Berlin’s fiscal shift may offer opportunities at home instead. The question is how quickly a brewing EU investment boom will take shape.

Market jitters hand IPO wannabes a thorny dilemma

11 Mar 2025

The S&P 500 fell 3% on Monday and the VIX volatility gauge surged. Float candidates like Klarna and CoreWeave will hope things calm down, but high valuations and trade wars suggest otherwise. If trouble persists, cash-hungry buyout barons and others may have to take the plunge.

VW’s Porsche woes make case for leadership shakeup

11 Mar 2025

The $62 bln German carmaker expects faster growth and a robust operating margin in 2025. CEO Oliver Blume is getting a boost from new models and cost cuts. Yet the sports car marque, which VW controls and Blume also runs, is stalling. It’s a good time to get a second driver.

EU firms’ barriers to Russia re-entry are sky-high

10 Mar 2025

Groups like Renault and Inditex quit the country after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Contracts make it theoretically feasible for them to return. But even if a peace deal proves possible, the risks are too great for European groups to go back.

European airline tailwinds cloud M&A glide path

6 Mar 2025

Lufthansa and Air France-KLM shares leapt after strong finishes to the year, closing the gap with bigger $20 bln rival IAG. Eventually, Europe’s market could slim down to a small group including these players. Scope for a stronger 2025 makes it less clear who will buy what.

Germany ends fiscal self-harm with bazooka bang

5 Mar 2025

Chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz will ask the state’s lame-duck parliament to OK a 500 bln euro infrastructure fund and to exempt most defence spending from stringent budget rules. Berlin’s fiscal hairshirt has long prevented growth-friendly policy. The shift looks permanent.

Europe’s defence push provides cover for tax raid

3 Mar 2025

US hostility to its erstwhile European allies heightens the need for the continent to rearm. Extra spending increases pressure on already stretched finances. But leaders who gathered in London over the weekend have a consolation of sorts: the crisis is an excuse to raise taxes.

EU banks’ M&A secret weapon nears sell-by date

3 Mar 2025

The ‘Danish Compromise’ lets Europe’s lenders buy insurers while shielding the capital hit. Yet Italy’s battle over $15 bln Banco BPM suggests the tool can also be hard to deploy. If financial groups fear regulators could withdraw the wheeze, maybe it’s no longer much use.

How to raise $420 bln a year for Europe’s defence

24 Feb 2025

The partial breakdown in the transatlantic alliance means the continent may need to double its defence spending. The money will have to come from a mixture of national budgets, European Union funds and perhaps a new vehicle. Many sacred cows will be slaughtered on the way.

Merz’s victory opens new era of German uncertainty

23 Feb 2025

Election exit polls in Europe’s top economy saw the conservatives win 29% of the vote, but record results for the far-right AfD. CDU leader Friedrich Merz faces a messy coalition with the SPD. That may take months, at a time when both Germany and the EU need rapid decisions.

German elections chart course for a lonely Europe

20 Feb 2025

Voters in the EU’s largest country are set to go to the polls as US leaders threaten to withdraw military support from the continent, economic malaise lingers, and the far-right AfD gains ground. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the electoral stakes.

Tank maker’s surge depends on political air cover

18 Feb 2025

Shares in $43 bln Rheinmetall have outperformed chip darling Nvidia since 2021 and doubled since the US election. Investors are implicitly assuming Europe will lift defence spending to at least 3% of GDP while hugely favouring the German firm. They could be wrong on either front.

EU joint defence debt has many hoops to go through

18 Feb 2025

European powers are contemplating the idea of a common borrowing vehicle to finance a big hike in military spending. But they need to agree on which EU countries are involved, and how to include the UK. In any case, it would only delay the fiscal cost of a major defence push.

Aircraft maintenance boom has further to fly

14 Feb 2025

In 2024, stuttering production of new jets saw repairs of older models take on fresh import for the likes of Melrose and Safran. This year deliveries could rise by 25%. But supply chain uncertainty and strong flying demand mean the maintenance profit engine can continue to motor.

New Commerz plan may help UniCredit’s Andrea Orcel

13 Feb 2025

The $24 bln German bank is targeting a 15% return on tangible equity in 2028, up from 9.2% in 2024. Yet the goals are underpinned by optimistic revenue assumptions and seem light on safer cost cuts. The minute CEO Bettina Orlopp puts a foot wrong, her Italian suitor can swoop.

Andrea Orcel’s M&A hunt homes in on Italy

11 Feb 2025

The UniCredit boss pledged bold returns, even as lower rates squeeze banks’ lending margins. Solid performance, and a whirl of rival deals, make his bid for $14 bln Banco BPM increasingly realistic. That’s just as well, since his pursuit of Commerzbank looks ever more distant.

Why Elon Musk is a headache for broadband bosses

11 Feb 2025

The SpaceX founder’s Starlink business has about 5 mln users of its satellite internet service. It’s a big risk for telecom firms in developing countries with few fixed-line connections, like India. But Western incumbents, particularly in the US, should also be concerned.