France

French plutocratic raiders rally around their kind

26 May 2020

LVMH’s Bernard Arnault helped the activist-besieged owner of Paris Match by snagging 25% of the Lagardere family’s holding company. And Vivendi’s Vincent Bolloré raised his stake in the media group to 16%. Mogul overcrowding risks blunting Amber’s bid for better governance.

Virus will accelerate European mall king’s decline

11 May 2020

Unibail-Rodamco is facing a cash crunch as retail tenants withhold rent. Although the crisis looks temporary, the accelerated advance of online shopping is an existential threat to the 7 bln euro Westfield owner. Disposals may be the only way to shrink its 24 bln euro debt load.

BNP CEO’s “trust me” routine is only half credible

5 May 2020

First-quarter earnings at the French bank fell 33%, driven by losses in equities trading. Boss Jean-Laurent Bonnafé argues that superior risk control means 2020 profit could fall by just one-fifth. Investors are rightly dubious that the lender’s bad debt charges will stay so low.

SocGen hits replay button on trading horror show

30 Apr 2020

The French bank plunged into the red due to $277 mln in losses on equity bets. That contrasts with investment banking peers who reported sharp rises in trading income. CEO Frederic Oudea’s pledge of more cost cuts does little to reassure there won’t be more goofs to come.

The Exchange: Corona-nomics

27 Apr 2020

Kevin Warsh, Jason Furman and Laurence Boone join a wide-ranging panel discussion with Breakingviews to size up the global monetary and fiscal responses to the economic lockdowns enforced to halt the spread of Covid-19; and to map out a recovery back to something like normal.

Messy Air France-KLM rescue has lessons for others

27 Apr 2020

The French and Dutch governments are lending their respective parts of the ailing carrier up to 11 bln euros. The tricky bailout exposes the frailty of the 2004 merger. Germany’s Lufthansa, which owns Swiss and Austrian, and Anglo-Spanish operator IAG may face similar challenges.

EDF bailout would nuke Macron’s market ambitions

23 Apr 2020

Slumping power demand may force $23 bln EDF to seek fresh capital. The state utility might need at least $4 bln – but likely more. Having pledged to bail out carrier Air France, President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to back away from owning the means of production is fast unravelling.

Birkin bags are Covid-19’s most resistant nemesis

23 Apr 2020

The pandemic appears to have hit $77 bln Hermes less than luxury peers Kering and LVMH. A Chinese sales rebound suggests refined appetites of its rich clientele remain undiminished. Investors are right in betting the French group will outpace rivals in riding out of the crisis.

Bolloré offers Lagardere costly activist defence

22 Apr 2020

Vivendi, controlled by corporate raider Vincent Bolloré, has taken an 11% stake in the besieged French media company. That may help boss Arnaud Lagardere fend off hedge fund Amber Capital. The reward could be the chance to snap up the group’s prize publishing arm for himself.

Centerview picks risky moment for Parisian push

8 Apr 2020

The U.S. advisory firm hired Matthieu Pigasse to open its French office. Luring the ex-Lazard star is a coup, though he and 14 other bankers won’t have come cheap. With the coronavirus dampening corporate spirits, Centerview needs a V-shaped recovery for its bet to pay off.

Corona Capital: Latin America and Covid-19

8 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Six Latin American countries want a $15 billion loan to help fight Covid-19. "There's no harm in trying" says Peru's president, a sad sentiment reflecting the global shortage of needed equipment.

EQT finds LBO immunity formula for virus era

7 Apr 2020

Air Liquide is in talks to sell its disinfectant unit to the Swedish private equity firm for around 900 mln euros. Even with rising medical demand, the purchase looks brave given its rich valuation. Still, the risk of future epidemics could see the buyout group double its money.

China’s wannabe fashion empire unravels

3 Apr 2020

Two years after agreeing to buy Swiss luxury brand Bally from JAB for $600 mln, Shandong Ruyi has failed to nail down financing. Its large and complex debt structure looks increasingly shaky. Even an HNA-like fire sale for the Lycra and SMCP owner will be tough in these times.

Meal couriers can gain by cutting the grocery line

1 Apr 2020

The likes of Uber Eats and Deliveroo may suffer from lockdown-induced restaurant closures. Meanwhile, grocery giants are struggling to deliver all the tinned goods and pasta that punters desire. That’s a recipe for cooperation, and perhaps profits for the cash-starved sector.

Vivendi buyback is a high-stakes gamble

31 Mar 2020

The French media group has completed the sale of a stake in Universal Music for around $3.3 bln. That cheered up investors who had been worried the coronavirus might scupper the deal. Still, announcing new share purchases looks unwise given the company’s large debt pile.

Mitsubishi is too mild a mediator for Nissan

27 Mar 2020

Mitsubishi Corp, second-largest shareholder in the eponymous carmaker, is mulling a 10% stake in Renault, Reuters reports. It’s a small step, but could signal an overdue adjustment within the troubled troika. The French group will have to give more to get Nissan on board.

Corona Capital: Cirque du Soleil, Airlines, France

27 Mar 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Cirque du Soleil may leave TPG sunburnt. Airlines get a sweet bailout. And France joins the campaign against dividends.

Crisis gives activism new drive in Lagardère spat

26 Mar 2020

Amber Capital is pressing ahead with its campaign to oust the French company’s supervisory board. Long-term share underperformance and messy governance provide the justification. With Covid-19 giving companies an excuse to shelve reforms, constructive criticism is still needed.

Covea should be haggling hard with the Agnellis

20 Mar 2020

The French insurer’s proposed $9 bln purchase of Exor’s reinsurer PartnerRe has gone from dear to ridiculous in a month. Crashing peer valuations, pressure on Agnelli-owned Fiat Chrysler and a shortage of cash buyers give boss Thierry Derez ample room to negotiate a better deal.

It takes a plague to make Paul Singer fold

18 Mar 2020

Elliott dropped its resistance to French IT firm Capgemini’s $4.1 bln bid for Altran. Tendering shares is an awkward U-turn after complaining the offer undervalued its target. But cash talks. In walking away, the activist U.S. fund crystallises a rare gain in a crashing market.