France

Marine Le Pen election ban worsens French chaos

31 Mar 2025

The right-wing leader was handed a jail sentence and banned from standing for public office in an embezzlement trial. Her party’s anger could push the hung parliament into further disarray. France will find it even harder to take crucial decisions on the budget and defence.

Ubisoft debt fix leaves valuation quest on pause

28 Mar 2025

The $2 bln French gaming firm’s $1 bln injection from Tencent brings much-needed cash to cut leverage. In return for its massive investment, the Chinese group merely gets a small stake in a new subsidiary. That reflects a generous value for key titles like ‘Assassin’s Creed’.

Caterers’ US indigestion may only be for starters

20 Mar 2025

Sodexo’s shares fell 18% after it said falling demand for its meal services in North American universities would dent forecasts. Providing multi-year public sector food contracts should be a stable business. Tariffs and Donald Trump’s efficiency drive may make it less so.

Macron lacks the money to put where his mouth is

20 Mar 2025

The French leader wants Europe to boost defence spending. But with debt at 115% of GDP, France can’t easily find the 40 bln euros it needs to cover its share of the burden. The bloc’s strategic plans may be delayed by the fiscal woes of its main military power.

EU’s big Starlink headache is time, not money

14 Mar 2025

Investors seem confident $3 bln Anglo-French satellite group Eutelsat can replace Elon Musk’s company on Ukraine’s front lines. The swap could be costly, but this won’t deter a newly defence-focused EU. Whether the company can deploy what’s needed quick enough is another matter.

EU firms’ barriers to Russia re-entry are sky-high

10 Mar 2025

Groups like Renault and Inditex quit the country after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Contracts make it theoretically feasible for them to return. But even if a peace deal proves possible, the risks are too great for European groups to go back.

European airline tailwinds cloud M&A glide path

6 Mar 2025

Lufthansa and Air France-KLM shares leapt after strong finishes to the year, closing the gap with bigger $20 bln rival IAG. Eventually, Europe’s market could slim down to a small group including these players. Scope for a stronger 2025 makes it less clear who will buy what.

Europe’s defence push provides cover for tax raid

3 Mar 2025

US hostility to its erstwhile European allies heightens the need for the continent to rearm. Extra spending increases pressure on already stretched finances. But leaders who gathered in London over the weekend have a consolation of sorts: the crisis is an excuse to raise taxes.

EU banks’ M&A secret weapon nears sell-by date

3 Mar 2025

The ‘Danish Compromise’ lets Europe’s lenders buy insurers while shielding the capital hit. Yet Italy’s battle over $15 bln Banco BPM suggests the tool can also be hard to deploy. If financial groups fear regulators could withdraw the wheeze, maybe it’s no longer much use.

Altice’s Patrick Drahi limps on from debt disaster

26 Feb 2025

The tycoon struck a deal to slash his French telco’s 21 bln euro debt pile. While impairing bondholders, the agreement leaves Drahi in control and with some value, reversing the capital structure. The risk is that lenders demand even more to lend to the rest of his global empire.

How to raise $420 bln a year for Europe’s defence

24 Feb 2025

The partial breakdown in the transatlantic alliance means the continent may need to double its defence spending. The money will have to come from a mixture of national budgets, European Union funds and perhaps a new vehicle. Many sacred cows will be slaughtered on the way.

German elections chart course for a lonely Europe

20 Feb 2025

Voters in the EU’s largest country are set to go to the polls as US leaders threaten to withdraw military support from the continent, economic malaise lingers, and the far-right AfD gains ground. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the electoral stakes.

Tank maker’s surge depends on political air cover

18 Feb 2025

Shares in $43 bln Rheinmetall have outperformed chip darling Nvidia since 2021 and doubled since the US election. Investors are implicitly assuming Europe will lift defence spending to at least 3% of GDP while hugely favouring the German firm. They could be wrong on either front.

EU joint defence debt has many hoops to go through

18 Feb 2025

European powers are contemplating the idea of a common borrowing vehicle to finance a big hike in military spending. But they need to agree on which EU countries are involved, and how to include the UK. In any case, it would only delay the fiscal cost of a major defence push.

Aircraft maintenance boom has further to fly

14 Feb 2025

In 2024, stuttering production of new jets saw repairs of older models take on fresh import for the likes of Melrose and Safran. This year deliveries could rise by 25%. But supply chain uncertainty and strong flying demand mean the maintenance profit engine can continue to motor.

Paris summits go from green accord to AI discord

11 Feb 2025

A decade ago, France’s capital saw the world unite to fight climate change. In 2025, the US has refused to sign even a vague pledge for ‘inclusive and sustainable AI’ at President Macron’s conflab. Washington is entitled to do as it likes, but the lack of consensus is striking.

Why Elon Musk is a headache for broadband bosses

11 Feb 2025

The SpaceX founder’s Starlink business has about 5 mln users of its satellite internet service. It’s a big risk for telecom firms in developing countries with few fixed-line connections, like India. But Western incumbents, particularly in the US, should also be concerned.

Half-baked budget leaves France vulnerable

10 Feb 2025

Prime Minister François Bayrou managed to ram his finance bill through parliament. Bond investors look relieved, but with a deficit at 5.4% of GDP, France’s government still can’t control a rising debt load. It may need more market pressure to get serious.

French banks can shake off pariah status

6 Feb 2025

BNP Paribas and Société Générale trade at lower valuations than peers, despite improving returns. Narrow margins on domestic loans mean they didn’t benefit much from higher rates, but they could as the ECB cuts. And low sovereign exposure can buffer any political ructions.

US tax weaponisation launches messy European fight

5 Feb 2025

President Trump has begun probes into “discriminatory” tax measures, like France’s 3% Big Tech duty. His retaliation may include hiking levies for foreign firms and wealthy investors in the US. But since Europe is unlikely to cave in on this issue, the crossfire will be intense.