European Union

Europe’s US gas pivot is a work in progress

15 Jan 2025

The continent has been shifting its fossil fuel imports from Russia to those across the Atlantic. In theory, the European Union could offset President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats by ramping these up. But with limited scope to do so, the hike may instead come from Moscow.

Austria’s right turn adds sand to EU-Ukraine gears

14 Jan 2025

The appointment of right-wing leader Herbert Kickl as chancellor would strengthen Europe’s pro-Putin, eurosceptic club. The group including Hungary and Slovakia is too small to block most EU policies. But Brussels may move more slowly on aid to Ukraine or Russia sanctions.

Altered states will rule in 2025

9 Jan 2025

From President-elect Donald Trump’s whims to volatile capital markets, uncertainty is rising worldwide. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists share predictions for how robotic cars, obesity drug-fueled M&A or a smartphone backlash will take root amid the upheaval.

Risk and resilience are the watchwords for 2025

6 Jan 2025

In the past five years, the world economy has weathered disease and war. As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, the range of possible outcomes is wider than ever. Hefty sovereign debts and pumped-up stocks depend on the planet once again coping with fresh shocks.

Politicians will hinder central banks’ easing plan

3 Jan 2025

Economies are growing and inflation is falling globally. It’s an ideal environment for central bankers to lower rates. Yet governments are loath to cut debt, which hit 93% of GDP in 2024. Without fiscal restraint, monetary policy’s path will be bumpy, as will financial markets.

Insurance risks will be a proxy carbon tax

27 Dec 2024

Governments have failed to introduce a global levy to bring down fossil fuel emissions. But climate change is increasingly forcing up the cost of living. With insurance becoming more expensive and scarcer, the risk is that carbon pricing happens – but in a highly regressive way.

Buyout barons will find ways to douse fire sale

27 Dec 2024

Groups like KKR and EQT have $3 trln of assets, after years of slow sales. In 2025, pressure to offload companies will grow, putting paper valuations at risk. To soften the blow, firms will rely on innovative disposal tricks, like continuation funds and private share placements.

Credit markets’ calm veneer will crack

26 Dec 2024

Rates are falling, and so too are corporate defaults. Yet firms like Altice France, with $25 bln of borrowings, will still have to grapple with high funding costs. Losses on opaque private-credit loans will mount. Wafer-thin returns for risky debt leave little room for error.

Hot topics of 2024 will smoulder into new year

19 Dec 2024

Inflation in the United States, a struggling Chinese economy and Boeing’s existential challenges were among the stories that dominated this year. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why these issues – among others – will keep cropping up in 2025.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.

Berlin can curb but not stop a Romania-TikTok mess

12 Dec 2024

The app is under scrutiny for enabling meddling in Bucharest’s elections. Given a blanket TikTok ban is beyond the EU’s remit, Germany’s February poll may go the same way. Yet Berlin could also coordinate better with tech platforms ahead of time – which Romania didn’t.

Buyout barons’ Europe bargain hunt will intensify

11 Dec 2024

Preqin data shows that funds focusing on the region are outperforming North American ones, helped in part by a 10% valuation discount on local deals. The gap may grow as US stocks get more expensive. But for Europe it’s a sign of corporate weakness, rather than strength.

How the world could unplug from China’s batteries

10 Dec 2024

International cell makers are struggling to compete with Chinese giants like CATL. But innovations like solid-state batteries could upend the industry in the not-too-distant future. In this week’s episode of The Big View podcast, QuantumScape CEO Siva Sivaram explains how.

ECB approach to French storm can be a Gallic shrug

4 Dec 2024

The risk premium on France’s debt is at its highest since the 2012 euro zone crisis. Yet even if it worsens, the European Central Bank is unlikely to deploy knee-jerk rate cuts or bond-buying. It also has the tools to address spillover effects on other member states.

Why central banks were both lucky and smart

3 Dec 2024

Policymakers in major economies have quelled the post-pandemic inflation surge without causing recessions. In this episode of The Big View podcast, BlackRock’s Alex Brazier argues big rate hikes in the US, Europe and the UK helped – but so did unusually strong labour markets.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

Russian gas to Europe is on the slow road to zero

22 Nov 2024

The slim possibility of a Trump-brokered end to Moscow’s war with Ukraine raises the question of whether the European Union would ever buy more of its fossil fuels. Yet EU reliance on Russian pipeline gas is set to fall further. Moreover, Europe doesn’t need it.

Europe’s Starlink-lite is a worthwhile also-ran

21 Nov 2024

EU satellite players like Eutelsat are debt-laden minnows compared to Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned behemoth. But given Starlink now owns more than 60% of all working satellites, Europe has to start somewhere. Investors shouldn’t count on galactic returns, though.

Ukraine support is cheaper option for Europe

19 Nov 2024

New US President Donald Trump could cut aid to Kyiv. But the Old Continent has the means, and reasons, to pay up. Letting Russia win would mean more defence spending, a refugee crisis and geopolitical strife. That’s a bigger toll than the 0.4% of GDP the bloc would need to spend.

The power and peril of American economic warfare

12 Nov 2024

Successive US presidents have wielded sanctions and export controls against rival nations. Donald Trump promises further escalation. In this episode of the Big View podcast, political scientist Henry Farrell explains how weaponizing finance and technology can be self-defeating.