EMEA

Deutsche’s legal seesaw flags investor blind spot

22 Aug 2024

The German lender shocked shareholders in April by setting aside 1.3 bln euros for a 14-year-old Postbank M&A case, only to settle with most plaintiffs for half the claimed amount. It’s a case study in the opacity of bank legal risks, which plays into the sector’s value discount.

Elon Musk’s best move in EU fight may be an eXit

21 Aug 2024

The billionaire has different views on content moderation from the European Commission, which is investigating his social-media site. It’s hard to imagine a compromise. Rather than risking fines of 6% of sales, it might be easier for X to simply block users in the region.

Saudi fund’s prudence pivot is only half complete

20 Aug 2024

The $925 bln Public Investment Fund is spending more money locally. That should do more to help Saudi’s diversification push than past international forays. But the domestic projects are often speculative, implying low returns and a continued shortage of foreign co-investors.

Luxury’s legal pain is new threat to valuations

20 Aug 2024

Italian prosecutors allege sweatshop-like worker conditions at subcontractors of houses like LVMH’s Dior. That’s a bad look after recent luxury price rises. But if the sector has to hike costs to improve its supply chains, investors may find a new reason to mark valuations down.

Bharti sets strange tone for India’s global push

20 Aug 2024

Tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal's purchase of a $4 bln stake in BT suggests he sees better use for his capital in a mature UK firm than in India's fast-growing economy. New Delhi may be encouraging firms to go overseas; unfortunately, the first big buy in years barely looks rational.

Europe’s dealmakers begin tough redemption journey

19 Aug 2024

The market share of BNP, Barclays, UBS, SocGen and Deutsche seems to have troughed at around 8% in M&A and 6% in equity underwriting. The days of ever-increasing US dominance may be over. Getting investors to attach more value to these volatile units, though, is the harder job.

Mpox drugmaker’s shares may provide false comfort

16 Aug 2024

Bavarian Nordic, which makes a vaccine for the virus, gained $1 bln in value over the past week as the disease spread beyond Africa. The increase is equivalent to several million extra doses. That view, which implies a contained outbreak, may be too benign if mpox keeps mutating.

The ECB is running out of time to revive euro zone

16 Aug 2024

The bloc’s GDP rose by a steady 0.3% in the second quarter. But business surveys and sentiment data suggest growth is flagging. Inflation is sticky so European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde may be reluctant to cut rates decisively. But waiting risks impairing the recovery.

Past storms are still blowing against Orsted

15 Aug 2024

The Danish renewable energy firm has gained nearly 60% in market value since surprise US impairments shook confidence last year. Upcoming rate cuts can help but wind farm delays and supply chain risks remain. CEO Mads Nipper will find it hard to get the stock out of the doldrums.

Worldline buyout offers rare shot at easy returns

15 Aug 2024

The $2.5 bln French payment firm is an obvious target thanks to its depressed share price. Private equity buyers can wring out a decent return even with zero profit growth in the next few years. And seeing as France is only a minor market, the state is unlikely to meddle.

Growth is missing piece in UBS valuation puzzle

14 Aug 2024

The $100 bln lender is speeding up its cost cuts and shrinkage of Credit Suisse’s investment bank. But the bits of UBS investors like, such as wealth management and Swiss banking, seem sluggish. Changing that will be key to closing the value gap with rivals like Morgan Stanley.

Big Beer’s stumbles leave investors ice cold

14 Aug 2024

Heineken shares are down after it disappointed investors hoping for a sport-fuelled profit party. Rival Carlsberg’s valuation has fallen due to a $4 bln soft drinks takeover. For CEOs, emerging markets growth and deals in the right areas are the only way to add fizz to stocks.

Stocks are still strapped into a rollercoaster

13 Aug 2024

The VIX, an index that tries to gauge investors’ fears, soared 180% last Monday as stocks tumbled. Better US economic data and soothing words from the Bank of Japan have brought it down since. But history, and the shape of today’s markets, suggest that volatility is here to stay.

Iran danger marks return of oil’s risk premium

13 Aug 2024

Conflict in Gaza and tit-for-tat attacks in the Middle East have desensitised markets to possible supply shocks. A US warning of imminent retaliation against Israel changes that. Despite weaker demand, oil prices reflect the dangers of infrastructure and tankers becoming targets.

Power grids’ low-wattage resources may spark M&A

13 Aug 2024

European electric utilities have to invest big to meet rising demand. Yet balance sheets are laden with debt and raising equity is tough. Some will have to sell assets, or whole companies. Iberdrola’s $5 bln acquisition of a UK peer at a decent premium could be the first of many.

Woodside’s deal poses a new green conundrum

13 Aug 2024

Months after shareholders rejected its climate transition plan, the oil driller is buying an ammonia facility in Texas for $2.4 bln to help hit its emissions reduction goals. But the tech and end-uses are questionable. The return gives investors little to cheer, too.

Drahi-for-Bharti swap gives BT partial relief

12 Aug 2024

French mogul Patrick Drahi is offloading a 25% stake in the British telco worth about $4 bln to India’s Bharti. BT CEO Allison Kirkby can stop worrying about her indebted shareholder. Alongside Deutsche Telekom and Mexico’s Carlos Slim, her share register still looks crowded.

Flying PIIGS nations stir rethink in Europe’s core

12 Aug 2024

Former crisis economies like Spain, Greece and Italy have outpaced France and Germany by up to 20% since the pandemic. Lower exposure to manufacturing, a tourism boom and Brussels funds all helped. The role reversal may push Berlin to tolerate looser fiscal and monetary policy.

UK wealth buyout requires elbow grease and luck

9 Aug 2024

After an intense courtship, CVC and Abu Dhabi have snapped up investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown for $7 bln. The rich price tag means the new owners will have to slash costs while cranking up sales to make a decent return. That may be tricky if interest rates keep falling.

Putin’s hostage deal is chilling for C-suites

9 Aug 2024

The exchange of 24 prisoners between Russia and the West marked the first time a convicted murderer was swapped for journalists or dissidents jailed to serve as barter currency. If these practices become a habit, businesses will have to rethink where they deploy staff.