EMEA

Hedgie’s magazine deal is hazy UK media buy signal

10 Sep 2024

Paul Marshall’s 100 mln pound bid for the Spectator values the right-wing publication at over 40 times EBITDA. His generosity will encourage seller Jeff Zucker and partners they can find a similarly blithe buyer for the Telegraph. But the market for political clout has limits.

Ireland can use unwanted taxes to keep Apple sweet

10 Sep 2024

Europe’s top court told the iPhone maker to pay $14 bln in corporate levies. Dublin opposed the move for fear of driving away Big Tech. But PM Simon Harris can up the country’s allure by spending the funds on infrastructure, and IT giants have limited choices for EU headquarters.

AngloGold’s mid-size miner pounce may set a trend

10 Sep 2024

The US-listed group is paying $2.5 bln for Egypt-focused rival Centamin. High gold prices make it easier for bigger fish to bulk up via share-based deals. Rising production costs and future price volatility suggest more relative minnows could say yes to an adequate premium.

Big Pharma lacks motive to prep for new pandemics

10 Sep 2024

The WHO warned the next outbreak may be 20 times more deadly than Covid-19. Moderna’s Corona surge should encourage drugmakers to build up vaccine units for the next virus. But with investors giving little credit for one-off jabs, there’s not much incentive to invest.

Norwegian dreams fuel China’s electric-car bulls

10 Sep 2024

Nio boss William Li says the country could soon resemble Norway, where pure battery-powered models accounted for 94% of sales last month. Though the People’s Republic does share some similarities, a price war and a fad for hybrids mean not all roads lead to Oslo.

Vinted’s price markup rests on limitless growth

9 Sep 2024

Private equity shop TPG may buy a stake in the second-hand clothing site at a $5.5 bln valuation, the FT reported. It implies a much steeper multiple than the main listed peer. That may be fair if rapid growth persists, but the performance of other marketplaces are a red flag.

Draghi’s Europe plan collides with national crises

9 Sep 2024

The former Italian PM reckons the bloc must invest an extra $883 bln a year to catch up with the US and China. His report sensibly calls for telecom mergers and a common defence strategy. But the big lift will have to come from governments beset by their own issues.

Buyout barons’ music fest punt is oddly compelling

6 Sep 2024

Private equity and countercultural live events might seem worlds apart. Yet KKR’s recent $1.4 bln purchase of the Superstruct group that runs 80 music festivals has many of the factors buyout shops look for. Scope for a healthy return implies more will take the plunge.

Central banks lay liquidity trap for stock markets

6 Sep 2024

The US Federal Reserve and its major peers took $200 bln out of the financial system in early August, likely deepening a global equity slump. Ratesetters control the money supply for good reasons. But their huge presence and investors’ herdlike behaviour add new layers of risk.

China’s global battery ram will be hard to stop

6 Sep 2024

The US and EU have erected tariffs to limit imports of electric vehicles. The People’s Republic has an even bigger lead in batteries. New tech gives rivals a chance to muscle in, but Chinese cellmakers’ head start means resisting giants like $115 bln CATL will come at a cost.

Michel Barnier joins Macron’s last chance saloon

5 Sep 2024

French President Emmanuel Macron picked the former Brexit negotiator to form a government after inconclusive elections. The choice will antagonise the Left and divide the Right. It may buy Paris some time with Brussels on its budget. But the weak executive will have a short life.

VW row flags Germany’s creaking corporate model

5 Sep 2024

The $55 bln carmaker is battling unions as it tries to deepen a $11 bln cost-cutting programme. A complex shareholder base makes agreement harder. Such feuds are becoming more common as German consensus-driven governance faces a weak economy, trade wars and climate change.

Nestlé L’Oréal sale would add sugar to sour fix

5 Sep 2024

The Kit Kat maker’s new CEO Laurent Freixe may have to sacrifice profitability to claw back market share. Flogging part of the consumer group’s 20% stake in the $234 bln beauty giant could help fund buybacks or special dividends, taking the sting out of a painful turnaround.

Seven & i deal will test Japan’s financial renewal

5 Sep 2024

Couche-Tard’s takeover interest in the 7-Eleven owner is a pivotal moment for the country’s efficiency drive. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why Tokyo ought to wait to see how the target reacts before opining, and how a deal could easily turn hostile.

Oil’s new slump cuts across OPEC’s plan A

4 Sep 2024

Crude prices are off sharply, partly due to weak economic data and partly because a potential Libyan supply crisis appears to have been resolved. Yet OPEC plans to hike output in October. The producer group may have to choose between aggravating the selloff and its own unity.

Germany gets timing wrong with Commerzbank sale

4 Sep 2024

At first glance, the decision to offload shares in the 16 bln euro lender seems smart given a 130% share-price jump in three years. But the valuation is still low. And if long-rumoured M&A materialises, Berlin will forego its special influence and miss out on a takeover premium.

Deutsche’s UK broking adventure takes early detour

3 Sep 2024

The German bank’s $500 mln acquisition of Numis brought relationships with London-listed firms like Rightmove. Now it’s suspended work with the property portal after opting to advise Rupert Murdoch’s REA on a possible bid. Other UK clients may discount future claims of loyalty.

Telegram’s route to profitability looks dubious

3 Sep 2024

The troubled app’s CEO Pavel Durov runs a lossmaking enterprise. The easiest path to profitability is to echo Facebook, but content moderation costs would further hit Telegram’s finances. The main alternative is to be a messaging app, but WhatsApp implies that’s hard to monetise.

Murdoch’s UK property gambit has a price ceiling

2 Sep 2024

Australian property listings site REA Group is eyeing $6 bln UK peer Rightmove. The News Corp-backed suitor can use cash and higher-valued shares to pay a 30% premium. Beyond that, Rupert Murdoch’s outfit might struggle to combine a successful bid with keeping him in control.

Far-right’s vote win is a loss for German economy

2 Sep 2024

PM Olaf Scholz’s coalition parties got trounced in regional elections, with the extreme right-wing AfD winning more than 30% in Thuringia and Saxony. That could prompt Berlin to double down on fiscal discipline and tighten immigration rules, deepening the country’s growth woes.