EMEA

E-commerce will go viral on social media in 2023

27 Dec 2022

TikTok and YouTube are among those fighting for a piece of the estimated $46 bln shopping market that’s growing twice as fast as ads. It’s a sensible strategic move, but recession would dash some plans. Many products also won’t suit the apps and competition is expanding quickly.

Global finance unknowns are more “who” than “what”

27 Dec 2022

The blowup of the UK pension market has got regulators hunting for weaknesses in the over-$200 trln shadow banking sector. Emerging market funds and leveraged loans both bring vulnerabilities. But in deciding what to police, the question is who’s exposed. That’s a blind spot.

Bulb bailout exposes UK’s pseudo power market

23 Dec 2022

Octopus Energy is receiving a 4.5 bln pound taxpayer backstop to take on the bust supplier’s 1.5 mln customers. Like the government’s subsidy of household bills, the deal reveals the limits of Britain’s supposedly privatised power market. The question is when politicians notice.

Female fans will fuel Formula One in 2023

23 Dec 2022

Liberty Media’s testosterone-powered franchise is ready to shift gear. A docuseries following its drivers was among Netflix’s best-watched shows and lured more women to the racing stands. Forget Lewis Hamilton: finding a Louise Hamilton could rev up that trend and boost revenue.

Capital Calls: Barbarians at the check-in desk

22 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: Hotel landlord Vivion is engaged in a war of words with short-seller Muddy Waters, but it could fight back more effectively with cash.  

Central bank schism is bad news for bunds

22 Dec 2022

Markets reckon the Federal Reserve will stop hiking rates before the European Central Bank. That has pushed yields on 10-year German bonds closer to those of U.S. Treasuries. The trend will last in 2023, as sticky euro zone prices and a fiscal splurge pressure Berlin’s debt.

Capricorn mess mixes new and old ESG goofs

22 Dec 2022

Shareholders are angry at a takeover of the $950 mln oil group formerly known as Cairn Energy, months after they rejected a separate deal. It’s partly about price. But it also reflects investors’ new concern over environmental risks, and a very old dislike of poor governance.

Interlopers may yet crash the Gulf bank fee party

22 Dec 2022

The Middle East is one of the globe’s few healthy IPO markets. To relative outsiders like Barclays, it may look like big U.S. and domestic banks will grab the best mandates. Yet Saudi Arabia’s insistence that foreign banks base themselves in Riyadh presents an opportunity.

Putin’s Russia will look more like North Korea

22 Dec 2022

The Kremlin leader will strengthen his hold over the ailing economy, from banking to industrials. Massive nationalisation, along with the end of U.S. and European investments, could soon be followed by strict capital controls. The complete closure of the Russian economy is next.

Venture capitalists’ pain could be humanity’s gain

22 Dec 2022

Rate hikes have sapped enthusiasm for crypto, metaverses and gimmicky startups, with funding down 27% year-on-year. That will free up money to focus on nanotechnology and AI, which can boost lifespans and productivity but take longer to commercialise. Less frivolity is welcome.

Capital Calls: ADNOC chemicals push

21 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company seeks to sharpen its focus on petrochemicals by buying a 25% stake in $16 bln Austrian oil group OMV.

Euro crisis shield is stuck in hedge fund mode

21 Dec 2022

The European Stability Mechanism, set up to help troubled euro countries, aspires to be the bloc’s debt manager. But member states’ distrust of perceived German control and stigma around its aid make this unlikely. Managing old bailout loans is the fund’s best hope.

How Ana Botín can defeat the Santander sceptics

21 Dec 2022

The Spanish bank suffers from a lower valuation, relative to its return on tangible equity, than rivals. If its executive chair can keep costs low and show the group is worth more than the sum of its parts, that might change. If not, it’s time to sell assets, starting in the U.S..

Capital Calls: Brenntag M&A gambit

20 Dec 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $9 bln German chemicals group’s talks with U.S. peer Univar have left it stuck with an activist

EU pulls its punches on making polluters pay

20 Dec 2022

The bloc has expanded its emission trading system, but will allow heavy industry to enjoy free permits until 2034. Protecting European companies hit by high energy costs is understandable. Yet the freebies risks undermining a new carbon tariff, and the EU’s own green goal.

Big Pharma will find right formula for M&A binge

20 Dec 2022

Pfizer, AstraZeneca and peers have nearly half a trillion dollars of firepower to deploy on deals in 2023. Looming loss of exclusivity on key drugs gives them little choice. Luckily targets like Ascendis or Incyte are trading on depressed valuations, and less likely to resist.

Economic chaos will break Orbán’s strongman spirit

20 Dec 2022

The Hungarian leader needs EU funds to prop up his country’s struggling economy. With inflation at 20% and the forint in free fall, social unrest is brewing. Backing down on civil rights restrictions and tackling corruption would be a small price to pay for the EU’s support.

Central bankers will shift inflation goalposts

19 Dec 2022

The Federal Reserve, ECB and others insist they’re determined to get price increases back down to 2% a year. Though the target is arbitrary, changing it is tricky. But stubborn inflation means monetary authorities will have to find ways to tolerate rising prices for longer.

UAE will look to a world beyond OPEC

19 Dec 2022

The United Arab Emirates suffers from the oil cartel’s output restrictions. Distancing itself from the club would boost revenue and potentially attract more Western capital. President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan has a good moment to do so when he hosts the COP28 climate meet.

Polycrisis may lead to polycentric world order

19 Dec 2022

The United States is still top dog. But to contain China, it will need to listen to allies, take account of other powers and avoid throwing its weight around. Such “polycentrism” is the best chance to create order in a world struggling with multiple crises, says Hugo Dixon.