EMEA

Capital Calls: Amazon, Aramco

9 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: Rising costs and cautious consumers are driving the e-commerce giant to sell goods through mobile games and push incentives; the $2 trillion Saudi oil company’s new dividend policy is one way to interest investors in future share sales. 

Credit Suisse debacle raises oversight question

9 May 2023

Swiss authorities hailed the state-backed rescue of the stricken lender by UBS as a commercial solution that will be light on domestic taxpayers. Banking professor and former SNB official Urs Birchler tells The Exchange podcast why the quick fix is far from ideal.

EU debt’s credibility problem is worsening

9 May 2023

Borrowing costs of the bloc’s jointly issued bonds have risen above those of similarly rated sovereigns. The EU’s inability to deliver on promised joint revenues is exacerbating the impact of higher rates. That in turn reinforces investor fears that Brussels debt isn’t permanent.

Capital Calls: Crypto mysteries, HSBC

5 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: A court decision adds pressure on the US SEC to say which digital assets are securities, which would bring clarity to Coinbase and others; None of the $150 bln global bank’s big investors other than Ping An back an AGM breakup proposal.

Plastic packaging is buyout funds’ lucrative sin

5 May 2023

Private equity players are doubling down on plastic. Despite pollution concerns and rising regulation, companies like $5 bln ProMach have lured suitors due to stable growth and recyclable wrapping. Yet the world’s failure to reprocess used containers will generate more waste.

Inflation’s real benefits beat theoretical costs

5 May 2023

A barrage of shocks have battered the world’s developed economies, leaving central bankers struggling to adapt. Allowing prices to rise not only eases the economic adjustment but shrinks big debt piles, argues Felix Martin. That’s helpful to everyone – except bond investors.

Europe’s oil major sweet spot could yet turn sour

4 May 2023

Shell, BP and Total are still making fat profits, and investors seem fine with a slower route out of oil. Rising rates also make wind projects look even less enticing than fossil fuel ones. But longer term, Europe’s oil titans may lose their head start in the shift to net zero.

Lagarde fine-tuning will aid sputtering euro zone

4 May 2023

The European Central Bank’s move to raise rates by just 25 basis points and speed up its exit from bond-buying signals a less aggressive approach. High inflation calls for more hikes, but Frankfurt’s decision to use a scalpel rather than a hammer will benefit Europe’s economy.

Capital Calls: Unilever, Shopify

4 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The consumer goods company may need to backtrack on a pay package for its incoming CEO to quell a shareholder revolt; shares in Canadian e-commerce firm Shopify shot up over 20% after it said it was selling its logistics business to Flexport.

Volkswagen has increasingly narrow recovery track

4 May 2023

The $77 bln German auto giant reported bumper revenue, but faces an era of slowing growth as slick rivals like Tesla expand. CEO Oliver Blume hopes to boost car sales by 15% and avoid a collapse in prices. Neither looks easy, but at least its stock is priced for the worst.

Telecom Italia is stuck in risky game of chicken

4 May 2023

The telco’s board must decide on rival bids from KKR and state investor CDP for its fixed-line grid. None comes close to the 31 bln euro price wanted by top investor Vivendi, but cash is needed to slash debt. If neither side blinks, the group could face a messy capital increase.

Novo Nordisk’s chunky valuation risks crash diet

4 May 2023

The $274 bln pharma group trades at a big premium to peers. Investors are buoyed by hopes Novo can take a large share of an obesity market that could be worth $100 bln by 2031. But competition and questions about its drug’s effectiveness could slim down its valuation.

Capital Calls: Europe’s JPMorgan, UniCredit

3 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: BNP Paribas is sucking up deposits while other rivals lose them, but its 12% return on equity goal looks uninspiring; the Italian bank’s CEO Andrea Orcel raised his financial targets for 2023, but may not rush a BPM swoop.

Italy’s Leonardo risks missing defence bonanza

3 May 2023

The $7 bln Italian electronics and helicopter group, 30%-owned by the state, trades at a discount to peers. Leonardo is not fully capitalising on rising EU military budgets after the Ukraine war. Investor support to add external expertise to the board is sorely needed.

Buyout barons make bloody return in Europe

3 May 2023

Silver Lake and Bain are facing off to buy German company Software AG amid a revival in takeovers. Cheap stock prices mean deals can work despite debt constraints. But a limited pool of targets will make it hard to deploy $2 trln of dry powder, and stay disciplined.

UK listing shakeup requires double dose of hope

3 May 2023

Britain’s financial watchdog wants to spur domestic IPO markets by weakening shareholder protections. Yet making London appealing to fast-growing foreign firms requires wider reforms that may not occur. And lower standards are only a good idea if investors punish bad governance.

ECB risks interest-rate blunder after messy data

2 May 2023

The European Central Bank is none the wiser following a raft of new numbers. Lenders may be reining in credit, but headline inflation is rising. Hardliners will still push for a 50 basis point hike on Thursday. The uncertain conditions call for an increase half that size.

Slowing growth will crash European stock party

2 May 2023

The region’s shares have risen 22% since September, trouncing their US peers. A resilient economy and low valuations lured investors. Aggressive rate hikes and falling earnings will drive them away. High-quality bonds and emerging markets’ equities are good alternatives.

Ending the retailers’ crisis has a high price tag

2 May 2023

Luring inflation-wary shoppers back to the high street won’t be cheap, executives at last week’s World Retail Congress said. Heavyweights like Zara owner Inditex, which has room to plough money into stores, stand to win big. H&M and others cutting to survive face a slow decline.

Capital Calls: BP, Japanese M&A

2 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The oil giant will buy back $1.8 bln of shares over the next three months, which is less than investors hoped for; Astellas Pharma is making the most of cheap debt for its $5.9 bln pounce on U.S. eye-treatment specialist Iveric Bio.