EMEA

IMF’s bond vigilante script is ripe for a rewrite

10 Oct 2023

The International Monetary Fund wants politicians to close the fiscal taps. Yet it’s also warning about a sharp slowdown in global growth. Markets are worried about debt levels but without spending and investment the world will stagnate.

Next EU chief will need cash more than trade wars

10 Oct 2023

Ursula von der Leyen kicked off her campaign to stay European Commission president by attacking China’s car subsidies. But what the bloc craves is a plan to grow its economy and enlarge eastwards, including finding $411 bln for Ukraine. A bigger, better Europe won’t come cheap.

Israel highlights fragility of new trade corridors

10 Oct 2023

The bloody conflict undermines Washington’s vision to use the country’s Haifa port to link India via Saudi Arabia to Europe. It also makes China’s pivot to the Middle East look less of a bright idea. The spoils are huge but reconfiguring trade and financial flows is hard work.

Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven

9 Oct 2023

Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.

Nobel Prize points way to closing gender pay gap

9 Oct 2023

US economist Claudia Goldin won the Swedish award for showing that wage inequality between men and women spikes after children are born. Governments can rectify that by funding childcare instead of fossil fuels. A more balanced workforce will boost tax revenue and spur growth.

Capital Calls: Germany, Schaeffler

9 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s resounding defeat in key local elections on Sunday sends a message to Brussels; the German group’s 3.6 bln euro acquisition of auto supplier Vitesco makes sense in an era of greater competition.

Metro deal is a model of sorts for bank watchdogs

9 Oct 2023

The UK lender’s self-help plan refinances 350 mln pounds of debt that regulators force it to have. Arguably those rules caused the recent panic, but they also act as an early warning system. US supervisors mulling a similar approach may see enough positives to press ahead.

The EU is stuck with its one-trick refugee policy

9 Oct 2023

Africans and Asians fleeing persecution could boost the European Union’s ageing workforce. But its leaders are so scared of nationalism at home they prefer to pay North African regimes to stop asylum-seekers crossing the Mediterranean. It’s a short-term fix, says Hugo Dixon.

Israel flashes geopolitical warning at shaky time

9 Oct 2023

Bloody attacks in the Middle Eastern country raise the risk of contagion, possibly involving Iran. It’s a bad time for the region to join Ukraine as a conflict hotspot. And it’s yet another concern for a global economy grappling with inflation and rising borrowing costs.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.

The Queen’s question returns with a vengeance

6 Oct 2023

‘Why did no one see it coming?’ the late British monarch asked economists during the 2008 financial crisis. Applying the same query to resurgent inflation is even more awkward for central bankers. There are multiple answers, but no magic solutions, says Felix Martin.

Capital Calls: Finnair

6 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: The state-backed airline is planning to raise 600 mln euros through a rights issue – almost as much as its current equity.

Big Four scandals will derail breakup plans

5 Oct 2023

EY and PwC are dealing with issues in their tax and consulting units. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how falling valuations of rivals like Accenture as well as questions about the stability of consulting fees will mean these firms may stick together.

Capital Calls: Alstom cash crunch

5 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: The French train maker’s management is in the spotlight after it warned on free cash flow for the year, sending its shares down 35%.

Metro Bank’s fortunes depend on its bondholders

5 Oct 2023

The ailing UK banking upstart urgently needs more capital. One option is to buy back bonds worth 600 mln pounds that trade far below face value. Given the threat of regulators wiping them out, holders may prefer to sell. That would also give Metro more time to find a new owner.

Renk blowup points to winter of IPO discontent

5 Oct 2023

The defence contractor pulled its $2 bln listing in Frankfurt. A slump in defence stocks and a selloff in bond markets explain the abrupt decision. But given the company’s growth prospects and cautious pricing, its failure is likely to deter would-be followers.

China is swing factor in diesel’s global squeeze

5 Oct 2023

Russia’s export ban on the fuel may prove a temporary scare. But low inventories in the US and Europe, spiking crude prices and a colder winter could keep it in short supply. The key variable, though, is whether China helps ease the pressure by raising export quotas.

Capital Calls: Sandoz

4 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: Shares in the generic drugs maker, which Swiss pharma giant Novartis has handed to investors in a spinoff, have started trading in Zurich.

Polish cereal showdown goes against the EU grain

4 Oct 2023

A spat over Ukraine’s grain exports is the latest blemish on the European Union’s fraught relationship with Poland, the bloc’s sixth largest economy and biggest net recipient of EU funds. If upcoming elections push Warsaw further from Brussels, both sides have much to lose.

Meta’s EU subscription looks suspiciously pricey

3 Oct 2023

The Instagram owner may allow Europeans to pay $14 a month to avoid ads. It’s hard to see many users signing up, and the price is far higher than Meta’s regional revenue per user. Regulators and courts, which effectively pushed for this outcome, may get a phantom solution.