EMEA

ECB fails to get the memo on Europe’s emergency

6 Mar 2025

The European Central Bank cut its key rate to 2.5%, but now looks coy about future monetary loosening. Its fears of the inflationary impact of a tariff war and higher defence spending look overblown. And geopolitical uncertainty calls for firm guidance, not excessive caution.

European airline tailwinds cloud M&A glide path

6 Mar 2025

Lufthansa and Air France-KLM shares leapt after strong finishes to the year, closing the gap with bigger $20 bln rival IAG. Eventually, Europe’s market could slim down to a small group including these players. Scope for a stronger 2025 makes it less clear who will buy what.

Schroders makes first steps towards bigger shakeup

6 Mar 2025

The 6.5-bln-pound fund group pledged to cut costs and grow assets in areas like private equity. Bigger questions over its size, business mix and M&A will be left for another day. The plan at least means new CEO Richard Oldfield may be in a stronger position to confront them.

Germany ends fiscal self-harm with bazooka bang

5 Mar 2025

Chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz will ask the state’s lame-duck parliament to OK a 500 bln euro infrastructure fund and to exempt most defence spending from stringent budget rules. Berlin’s fiscal hairshirt has long prevented growth-friendly policy. The shift looks permanent.

Europe will struggle to slip US economic chokehold

5 Mar 2025

The continent relies on its erstwhile ally for defence, but also for finance, technology and energy. With Donald Trump’s return, those tight links have turned into vulnerabilities. Severing them is hard to imagine. The best Europe can do for now is credibly threaten retaliation.

Austrians dodge Gulf squeeze in plastics megadeal

4 Mar 2025

OMV and ADNOC will merge two plastics units. The Vienna-based $14 bln group had a weak hand because of exposure to high-cost Europe and the fact that the UAE-based giant is a key shareholder. But CEO Alfred Stern emerged with big dividends, decent governance and dignity intact.

Europe has money but few weapons for Ukraine

4 Mar 2025

US President Donald Trump has paused his country’s military support for Ukraine. Europe has the means to make up for it and plans to spend an extra $340 bln a year on its defence. But Kyiv still needs American weapons, which may force Europe to buy directly from the US.

Abrdn finds its missing vowels but not value

4 Mar 2025

New CEO Jason Windsor is renaming the $4.2 bln fund group Aberdeen and pledging to boost profit. Both steps are welcome but come amidst tricky markets and growing competition from index funds. Small wonder he is getting little credit for yet another turnaround from shareholders.

Europe’s defence push provides cover for tax raid

3 Mar 2025

US hostility to its erstwhile European allies heightens the need for the continent to rearm. Extra spending increases pressure on already stretched finances. But leaders who gathered in London over the weekend have a consolation of sorts: the crisis is an excuse to raise taxes.

EU banks’ M&A secret weapon nears sell-by date

3 Mar 2025

The ‘Danish Compromise’ lets Europe’s lenders buy insurers while shielding the capital hit. Yet Italy’s battle over $15 bln Banco BPM suggests the tool can also be hard to deploy. If financial groups fear regulators could withdraw the wheeze, maybe it’s no longer much use.

WPP woe advertises scope for shiny buyout

28 Feb 2025

The $9 bln UK group’s shares fell 16% after it warned sales may flatline in 2025. A shaky backdrop for deals means industry rivals are unlikely to pounce on their discount rival. But if a private equity shop can copy the success of rival Publicis it can make a neat return.

City of London rent surge is boon for Canary Wharf

28 Feb 2025

Office rents in central London are approaching twice those further east, thanks to a post-Covid rush to newer buildings in prime locations. But businesses are also being priced out. With more demand and less supply, Brookfield and Qatar-owned Canary Wharf may see an influx.

Climate policy requires a more realistic approach

27 Feb 2025

Despite trillions of dollars spent on renewable power, hydrocarbons account for over 80% of the world’s primary energy. Financial markets have lost confidence in the pursuit of net zero. The best governments can do is encourage the search for viable new electricity sources.

Rolls-Royce has sunny skies, with a fuzzy horizon

27 Feb 2025

The $80 bln engine maker’s stock rose 20% after it beat forecasts and raised targets. A strong backlog of work plus exposure to defence suggest the sweet spot can last. One longer-term uncertainty is how to enter the market for short-haul planes without taking on too much risk.

Altice’s Patrick Drahi limps on from debt disaster

26 Feb 2025

The tycoon struck a deal to slash his French telco’s 21 bln euro debt pile. While impairing bondholders, the agreement leaves Drahi in control and with some value, reversing the capital structure. The risk is that lenders demand even more to lend to the rest of his global empire.

Thames fix is acid test for UK, and privatisation

27 Feb 2025

Britain’s biggest water utility has received a number of rescue bids. If the likes of buyout group KKR can get a return while keeping Thames Water creditors onside, it would boost both the UK’s flagging FDI appeal and the global case for privatisation. That’s a big if, though.

BP reincarnates as more vulnerable Shell

26 Feb 2025

The $89 bln oil major is following its rival’s playbook in abandoning renewable targets and shrinking green investments. It could have gone further in selling assets and returning capital. A lowly share price could give activist investor Elliott support to push for bolder action.

Ukraine may yet get better of Trump on mining deal

26 Feb 2025

A draft plan to channel some of the country’s mineral wealth to the US looks like an asset grab. But if Volodymyr Zelenskiy can bind the president to the economic future of an independent Ukraine, and the start of its $520 bln reconstruction, Kyiv could still benefit.

Insurers will struggle to dodge climate-change tab

26 Feb 2025

From California to Delhi, losses from floods and wildfires are growing. Meanwhile, insurers are pulling cover to protect themselves. Governments can’t let that happen en masse, though, meaning the $3.6 trln property and casualty sector will end up paying one way or another.

New Unilever CEO has a chance to revisit mega-M&A

25 Feb 2025

Hein Schumacher is leaving the $139 bln Dove soap maker after less than two years. His replacement, finance boss Fernando Fernandez, inherits a stable of mostly humdrum brands vulnerable to competition. Buying something, like previous target Haleon or a beauty group, may help.