EMEA

Western support for Ukraine will wobble – but hold

22 Dec 2023

Foreign donors have given $66 bln in fiscal aid to the country since Russia’s invasion. A prolonged conflict will test the US and Europe’s solidarity with Kyiv. But allies will keep backing President Volodymyr Zelenskiy once they consider what will happen if they don’t.

Wintershall saga reaches logical $11 bln endgame

21 Dec 2023

After flirting with a listing and rival suitors, the BASF-owned German oil group is to merge with $3 bln Harbour Energy. The UK-listed buyer gets a relatively cheap way to bulk up in gas assets. The sellers get to stick around for the ride, courtesy of some funky financing.

Capital Calls: Angola and OPEC

21 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The African state’s decision to quit the oil producer group isn’t a huge deal in the short term, but will raise fears of more meaningful exits.

EU debt rules offer unity at price of relevance

21 Dec 2023

European Union finance chiefs reached a deal on a new fiscal pact, breaking a post-pandemic stalemate. Germany won austere deficit and debt targets, yet pain will be diluted by French-fought delays and concessions. The net result is an overly complex system that may not work.

Permira risks tripping on rushed Golden Goose IPO

21 Dec 2023

The buyout shop may list the fast-growing Super-Star sneakers brand. With its track record tainted by bootmaker Dr. Martens’ poor post-listing performance, the investment firm has little room for error. Hurrying a share sale while the luxury segment faces headwinds seems unwise.

Green investors will learn the art of stockpicking

21 Dec 2023

Wind and solar stocks had a torrid 2023, as stars like Orsted crashed. But renewables investment is strong, input cost inflation is abating and rates may have peaked. Investors able to pick developers in the right sector, or suppliers in the right regions, may find bargains.

US defense minnows will storm the barricades

20 Dec 2023

Even as conflict in Ukraine leads American arms makers to boost production, the political mood is turning against giants like Lockheed Martin. With half the $415 bln handed to American defense contractors not receiving a competitive bid, newcomers will make battlefield gains.

Big companies will raid government for future CEOs

20 Dec 2023

There’s a long history of businesspeople going into politics. Now sanctions and subsidies are showing boardrooms the value of diplomatic skills. Lazard CEO Peter Orszag and Legal & General Chairman John Kingman worked in government. Others will follow through the revolving door.

Suez crisis may finally jolt Egypt out of stasis

20 Dec 2023

Cairo was wobbling even before militant attacks threatened its $9 bln of annual revenue from the Suez Canal. With inflation at 36%, re-elected President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s foreign aid needs are spiking. He will need to stop dawdling on reforms required by donors like the IMF.

Spain’s Saudi telecoms shield is pricey and futile

20 Dec 2023

Madrid is buying 10% of Telefonica to protect it from the kingdom’s stake-building. But Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez already has tools to block the Gulf investor taking a board seat or a bigger share. Splurging taxpayer money unnecessarily looks risky for a new government.

Capital Calls: Back from the USSR

20 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: Austrian bank Raiffeisen’s 1.5 bln euro plan to swap assets with sanctioned billionaire Oleg Deripaska is smarter than it looks.

BP and Equinor will find common ground

20 Dec 2023

The British oil major is undervalued against peers and is in a leadership vacuum. That makes it vulnerable to a takeover as US mega-mergers shake up the sector. Daring to tie up with Norwegian ally Equinor offers a powerful hedge and a springboard.

Biofuels comeback will give West a rare energy win

20 Dec 2023

Propellants from plant waste and animal fats have lost out amid an e-mobility push. Yet the difficulty of using electricity for planes and ships, and the rise of non-edible crops as feedstock, will offset food supply fears. Western groups like BP, Total and Eni will benefit.

Price of Illumina’s Grail fail extends to board

19 Dec 2023

The gene-sequencing company finally conceded to selling the cancer-testing business it bought without regulatory approval for $7.1 bln. Its bravado will be costly, as Grail’s value has plummeted. Boss Francis deSouza already paid with his job; directors deserve to, as well.

Capital Calls: Cevian tries ‘relaxivism’ at UBS

19 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The pushy European investor has bought shares worth around 1.2 bln euros in the Swiss bank, equivalent to a 1.3% stake. Yet it seems happy to sit back and let UBS management execute their strategy.

New Red Sea blockage may be both longer and milder

19 Dec 2023

Militant attacks have forced groups from Maersk to BP to avoid the conduit for over 10% of world trade. Re-routing round Africa will hike fuel costs and could last six months. Yet weaker global demand relative to a six-day 2021 stoppage may limit the wider economic fallout.

Saudi’s best foreign investment will be in Gaza

19 Dec 2023

The kingdom is known for flashy punts on Western sports and blue chips. But its real need is foreign cash to help diversify away from oil. If Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman were to use Saudi money to help Palestinians rebuild post-war, US goodwill may prompt an FDI spike.

Swiss pharma mega-deal has healthy prognosis

19 Dec 2023

In 2001 Novartis took a stake in Roche, yet a deal never happened. Over two decades later, the mooted acquirer is stronger and could gain from vast synergies and more heft in oncology. Making the $440 bln union a reality means overcoming family pride, and antitrust issues.

StanChart M&A theory will finally become reality

19 Dec 2023

For years, the bank run by Bill Winters was cheap but dysfunctional. Now, it’s producing significantly higher returns on tangible equity but the valuation remains low. If that persists in 2024, it will be hard for suitors like First Abu Dhabi Bank to resist launching a bid.

Farfetch rescue leaves scattered luxury debris

18 Dec 2023

The struggling online merchant secured a bailout from South Korean e-commerce giant Coupang, which is injecting $500 mln. The deal gives Farfetch a fresh shot at existence, but leaves former backer Richemont wiped out, and its new investor with fresh messes to clean.