EMEA

US markets’ exceptionalism goes into reverse

20 Mar 2025

After years of setting the global pace, the S&P 500 Index has dropped 9% from its peak while Hong Kong and Europe benchmarks rise. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether trade wars and threats to the rule of law portend a durable shift.

Rivals could put a stopper in BT’s cash fountain

19 Mar 2025

The $21 bln telecom group’s shares are up over 50% over the last year. That reflects hopes that the end of a costly fibre rollout could mean a windfall for shareholders, including tycoon Sunil Bharti Mittal. Yet upstart challengers could steal market share and drive down prices.

Erdogan crackdown slams brakes on Turkish recovery

19 Mar 2025

The $1.5 trln economy has gained from more orthodox monetary policy in recent years, which boosted financial assets and has helped tame inflation. Now President Tayyip Erdogan’s arrest of a key political rival has hit the lira, and will unsettle ratesetters and foreign investors.

UK will struggle to sit out Trump’s tariff war

18 Mar 2025

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has eschewed Brussels-style retaliation after the president put import levies on steel. That’s logical, but neutrality will get harder as EU-US tensions rise. His best hope is that tariff damage forces a US U-turn before he has to side with Europe.

EU’s defence fund is more toy gun than bazooka

18 Mar 2025

The European Commission plans to extend 150 bln euros’ worth of subsidised loans to member states to beef up their military. Only a few countries may tap the facility. Adding conditionality would shrink its attractiveness further. As it is, it is more symbolic than effective.

Klarna’s wisest IPO aim is a modest valuation hike

17 Mar 2025

The buy now, pay later firm made a net profit in 2024 as it eyes a US listing. Klarna was once worth $46 bln, but the last funding round only fetched $7 bln. While a new Walmart deal helps, rocky markets and the need for a discount to rival Affirm imply little more than $10 bln.

Russia’s economy would struggle to cope with peace

17 Mar 2025

After years of overheating, the $2 trln economy risks a hard landing if President Vladimir Putin ends his Ukraine war. A credit boom presages a default wave, while long-term demographic problems have worsened. All the more reason for Putin to avoid switching off the war machine.

Warring golf leagues could use a backroom deal

14 Mar 2025

The PGA Tour and Saudi-backed LIV’s merger to reunify the sport has stalled. The longer the circuits remain at odds, the further it fractures the game, with viewership already down 19% last year. Yet both sides are dug in. A Trump-brokered agreement has issues, but makes sense.

Bankers may not welcome UK rainmaker’s legal win

14 Mar 2025

Ian Hannam will get over $2 mln from a former client he sued for being ‘pushed out’ of an $18 bln mining merger. For M&A bankers, the dealmaker’s case makes it likelier CEOs pay for advice. But legal blowback risk will also make companies warier of who they consult on big deals.

EU’s big Starlink headache is time, not money

14 Mar 2025

Investors seem confident $3 bln Anglo-French satellite group Eutelsat can replace Elon Musk’s company on Ukraine’s front lines. The swap could be costly, but this won’t deter a newly defence-focused EU. Whether the company can deploy what’s needed quick enough is another matter.

UAE crypto bet is a new twist on AI infrastructure

13 Mar 2025

Abu Dhabi’s MGX is investing $2 bln in Binance, the exchange. MGX is usually seen as a vehicle for building out data centres and other kit linked to artificial intelligence. Betting on Binance is in line with greater US enthusiasm for crypto, but still strikes a different tone.

Bank investors bet on car loan scandal airbags

13 Mar 2025

A court verdict on mis-sold motor loans could pave the way for large fines for lenders like Lloyds. Yet that would undermine chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda, and the regulator has ways to limit the damage. Current stock prices imply a dent rather than a pile-up.

Buyout barons risk choking on their stuck assets

13 Mar 2025

Blackstone, KKR, CVC and their ilk have $3 trln of companies to sell. The backlog is too big for public markets or corporate buyers to absorb. That implies a new era for the industry of longer holding periods, lower returns, and a further push to win individual investors' cash.

Germany’s fiscal pivot gives Europe rare hope

13 Mar 2025

The nation known for anti-deficit orthodoxy faces an economic slowdown and US antagonism. Likely Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s response: boost spending by more than 500 bln euros. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast Breakingviews columnists discuss the jolt to the whole continent.

US-EU tariffs are a skirmish in riskier trade war

12 Mar 2025

Brussels reacted to Washington’s steel levies with 26 bln euros of measures on bourbon and other exports. The next steps could see Europe thwacking Big Tech, and President Trump targeting member states. Their effect is less predictable, and likely to be more painful for Europe.

How the World Bank can defend itself from Trump

12 Mar 2025

The US president is reviewing Washington’s membership of the global lender. Donald Trump could in theory quit the bank or just block its policies. Yet there’s hope for boss Ajay Banga, who has scope to argue that his work is surprisingly compatible with an ‘America First’ agenda.

Market jitters hand IPO wannabes a thorny dilemma

11 Mar 2025

The S&P 500 fell 3% on Monday and the VIX volatility gauge surged. Float candidates like Klarna and CoreWeave will hope things calm down, but high valuations and trade wars suggest otherwise. If trouble persists, cash-hungry buyout barons and others may have to take the plunge.

VW’s Porsche woes make case for leadership shakeup

11 Mar 2025

The $62 bln German carmaker expects faster growth and a robust operating margin in 2025. CEO Oliver Blume is getting a boost from new models and cost cuts. Yet the sports car marque, which VW controls and Blume also runs, is stalling. It’s a good time to get a second driver.

EU firms’ barriers to Russia re-entry are sky-high

10 Mar 2025

Groups like Renault and Inditex quit the country after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Contracts make it theoretically feasible for them to return. But even if a peace deal proves possible, the risks are too great for European groups to go back.

Italy’s great Generali game enters fateful round

10 Mar 2025

Rival investors are battling for control of the $52 bln insurer. A hostile takeover of Mediobanca and a new law could shift the power balance. Rival lender UniCredit might also play a role. The risk is that Generali’s governance becomes even more complex, echoing its past.