EMEA

Marine Le Pen election ban worsens French chaos

31 Mar 2025

The right-wing leader was handed a jail sentence and banned from standing for public office in an embezzlement trial. Her party’s anger could push the hung parliament into further disarray. France will find it even harder to take crucial decisions on the budget and defence.

Telecom Italia’s latest twist dials down vital M&A

31 Mar 2025

Italy’s state-held Poste has bought most of Vivendi’s stake in the $7 bln domestic telco, making it the biggest shareholder. The deal clarifies Telecom Italia’s future direction. Unfortunately, it also probably makes value-creative M&A with foreign operators like Iliad harder.

US threat oils wheels of Pirelli’s China derisking

31 Mar 2025

The $6 bln Italian tyremaker is pressing its Beijing-backed shareholder to cut its 37% stake. Pirelli’s US growth plans may admittedly suffer if it doesn’t. But a shift might also enable tycoon Marco Tronchetti Provera to once again use geopolitics to improve his influence.

Ubisoft debt fix leaves valuation quest on pause

28 Mar 2025

The $2 bln French gaming firm’s $1 bln injection from Tencent brings much-needed cash to cut leverage. In return for its massive investment, the Chinese group merely gets a small stake in a new subsidiary. That reflects a generous value for key titles like ‘Assassin’s Creed’.

EU defence fiscal holiday will backfire

28 Mar 2025

Brussels wants to freeze Europe’s budget rules for four years to encourage states to boost defence spending. Countries may have added up to $800 bln of military outlays by then and will struggle to return to fiscal discipline. The EU needs reformed rules, not just a time out.

King Dollar’s long reign is set to continue

28 Mar 2025

President Donald Trump’s trade wars raise new concerns about the US dollar’s future as a reserve currency. Members of his administration are also ambivalent about the greenback’s status. Yet the dollar has defied doom-mongers for half a century. It will not be easily dethroned.

Berlusconis’ German M&A only partly eases TV bind

27 Mar 2025

The Italian family’s firm MFE has offered to buy the outstanding shares of its $1.5 bln rival ProSieben. Bulking up has a certain logic when TV is declining, provided the target accepts the cheap offer. But it ultimately won’t stem the outflow of viewers and advertisers.

Car investors only take US tariffs semi-seriously

27 Mar 2025

Shares in the likes of BMW and Volkswagen fell after President Donald Trump whacked 25% tariffs on auto imports. Those declines may not be pricing in the worst. Carmakers can soften the blow, and Trump may backtrack. Yet US trade imbalances suggest that may not happen soon.

How UBS can soften or swerve $25 bln capital blow

27 Mar 2025

Swiss lawmakers might whack the bank with demands for extra equity. Chair Colm Kelleher could dodge the punch by moving its head office, but that would be risky. Better for UBS to cushion the impact by shrinking the investment bank - or even offloading its US wealth unit.

‘Pro-growth’ M&A policing is a misnomer

27 Mar 2025

The transatlantic trustbusting consensus forged by Lina Khan and Margrethe Vestager is already fraying. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists discuss if it will lead to mergers involving national champions such as GSK and BP, and in turn remedy some economic ills.

ECB bank snub is good for Orcel, bad for M&A bulls

26 Mar 2025

The supervisor has queried Banco BPM’s use of the ‘Danish Compromise’ in its swoop on fund group Anima. That’s bad for the acquirer. But it’s good for UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel, who wants to buy BPM – and for those who want M&A to be based on logic, not capital arbitrage.

UAE’s bumper US bet is AI access down payment

26 Mar 2025

The Gulf state is to fork out $1.4 trln on American energy and mining over the next decade. Given US economic uncertainties, not all these investments may go well. But if it prompts Washington to grant the UAE access to more advanced chips for AI, it may prove money well spent.

Holcim’s US sure thing is now a wait-and-see

25 Mar 2025

The $62 bln Swiss materials group reckons its soon to be New York-listed North American arm can grow strongly up to 2028. Assuming it hits its targets, 'Amrize' may yet get the re-rating that underpins the split’s logic. But the newly wobbly US economy makes that less certain.

Tax U-turn is UK chancellor’s least bad option

25 Mar 2025

Rachel Reeves needs $19 bln to comfortably meet her own fiscal rules. But cutting spending and welfare may backfire and leave her weak. Raising income tax would be a breach of pre-election promise but can be justified by the Ukraine crisis and offers a more permanent fix.

What investment firms can teach us about AI

25 Mar 2025

Though artificial intelligence seems new, fund managers have used it to spot patterns for years. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Gary Collier, chief technology officer of Man Group, talks about the surprising lessons he’s learned and debunks some common AI tropes.

RWE typifies corporate Europe’s investment dilemma

24 Mar 2025

The $26 bln German energy group is scaling back US green projects to help save $11 bln. Activist Elliott wants the money spent on buybacks, but Berlin’s fiscal shift may offer opportunities at home instead. The question is how quickly a brewing EU investment boom will take shape.

Sustainable fuel surge may mean fewer UK flights

24 Mar 2025

Britain wants airlines to ramp up use of sustainable aviation fuel at a faster pace than in the EU. That’s laudable, with the hard-to-decarbonise sector accounting for 2% of global emissions. But the margin hit for short-haul carriers like easyJet may risk them flying elsewhere.

Donald Trump’s boomerang will hit the US hard

24 Mar 2025

The president’s bullying of allies is damaging international trust. Friendly countries no longer want to depend on a wayward superpower and will seek greater autonomy in defence, technology, energy and finance. Though they will still do deals with the US, the backlash will hurt.

UK antitrust U-turn will awaken no-go megadeals

21 Mar 2025

The Competition and Markets Authority is reviewing how it probes M&A and faces a possible new law curtailing its powers. A laxer stance from the watchdog might resuscitate old ideas like Sainsbury’s $9 bln Asda bid. It may also boost new ones, like Shell-BP.

West Africa’s version of Brexit is as bad an idea

21 Mar 2025

The departure of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali from the Economic Community of West African States echoes the UK’s EU split. The military juntas’ move will hurt them more than ECOWAS. But it weakens West Africa’s free trade zone, and exposes the trio to greater Russian influence.