Denmark

Nordea’s defences are in need of repair

18 Jul 2019

Low rates and competition for mortgages knocked 35% off pre-tax profit at the Nordic region’s largest bank in the first half. That casts further doubt over its promise to keep raising dividends. CEO Casper von Koskull will have to cut costs closer to peers, or step aside early.

AB InBev checks into prolonged debt detox

15 Jul 2019

Cancelling the IPO of its Asian unit leaves CEO Carlos Brito with few options to quickly reduce net debt of $102 bln. Flogging Budweiser and Corona should bring borrowing below 2 times EBITDA, but not until 2023. The deal-happy group has no choice but a period of abstention.

Nordic banks’ soft regulators invite U.S. wrath

19 Jun 2019

Shares in Danske and Swedbank have fallen sharply due to concerns about American probes into money laundering. A $900 million fine by Dutch regulators helped ING escape U.S. ire for similar breaches. Laws limiting penalties in Scandinavia mean banks there may not be so lucky.

StanChart delivers a brittle show of strength

30 Apr 2019

The Asia-focused bank will buy back $1 bln of shares after a strong first quarter. With U.S. legal risks largely banished and the bank trading at a discount, the chutzpah is understandable. But one-off gains mean CEO Bill Winters is still some way from his 10 pct return goal.

Cox: Danish capitalism is alive but not all well

4 Apr 2019

The Nordic economy is a model for U.S. leftists like Bernie Sanders. The White House argued in a much-dissed paper that living standards in the region are lower due to socialism. The reality is otherwise. But as Danske Bank’s woes suggest, there’s no such thing as utopia.

Swiss freight group gets pirate’s bounty from DSV

1 Apr 2019

The Danish logistics company is handing over shares worth $4.6 bln for Panalpina after a months-long spat involving activist Cevian and a charitable foundation. The price is too good to turn down. Expert acquirer DSV will have to beat its own track record to make the deal pay.

AB InBev sets itself an easy target

28 Feb 2019

The Corona brewer pleased investors by unveiling healthy revenue growth and plans to cut net debt to below four times EBITDA by end-2020. The goal is feasible even without a mooted IPO of its Asia unit. Just as well since the company can ill afford big cuts in its marketing spend.

Asian drinkers justify Carlsberg’s premium price

6 Feb 2019

The Danish brewer trails bigger rivals AB InBev and Heineken in terms of profitability, yet trades on a higher multiple of earnings. That reflects the promise of higher margins, and greater exposure to growth in China and India. A $491 million share-buyback plan helps too.

Swiss $4 bln freight battle has questionable cargo

16 Jan 2019

Activist investor Cevian has helped solicit a bid for subscale freight group Panalpina. Would-be owner DSV could face competition from Switzerland’s Kuehne + Nagel, handing shareholders a sweeter price. It’s less clear that either will make a return from a much higher offer.

Bond markets shrug off Danske dirty-money risks

11 Jan 2019

The bank at the centre of a money-laundering scandal saw its cost of issuing risky debt more than double. Still, its yields are far below those of Italy’s UniCredit. The troubles at the Danish lender may have further to run, and are harder to predict, than Rome’s political drama.

U.S. will find a way to make Danske Bank suffer

4 Jan 2019

Congress has made banks’ anti-money laundering a key concern. That bodes ill for Danske Bank, embroiled in a 200 billion euro suspicious funds scandal. The Danish lender is hardly a household name in the U.S. That gives politicians who wish to make an example of it free reign.

Cevian, Nordea dangle truce in bank activism feud

21 Dec 2018

Lenders and shareholder activists rarely gel. But the Nordic bank welcomed the Swedish fund’s 2.3 pct stake. Cevian’s proposals for cost cuts are less radical than, say, a breakup, but could push Nordea’s return on equity to 14 pct. Its surplus capital could be a sweetener.

Viewsroom: The $230 bln scam rocking Nordic banks

25 Oct 2018

Danish lender Danske has already lost its chief executive on news that one of its Estonian branches was used to launder Russian money. Now Nordea and others are facing questions. Plus: investors drive car stocks into a ditch - and Daimler's and Ford's dividends look vulnerable.

Danske’s best-case scenario may be a painful fine

4 Oct 2018

The Danish bank said it faces a U.S. criminal probe over suspicious payments in Estonia. That raises the risk that it could be blacklisted in America, which sank Latvian peer ABLV, or be fined. Even a plausible $5 bln hit would send Danske’s capital ratio below its minimum level.

Danske can deflect pitchforks with bonus clawbacks

21 Sep 2018

CEO Thomas Borgen may have resigned after the Danish bank’s money-laundering scandal. But if he’s allowed to keep bonuses awarded during the time in question, Danske’s reputation will fall further. Its board has powers to claw back unjustified variable pay – it should use them.

Danske mea culpa will only partly calm U.S. wrath

19 Sep 2018

The Danish bank’s CEO has quit after an internal report said it ignored 200 bln euros in potentially suspect Estonian payments. With the threat of a hefty U.S. fine, pre-emptive head-rolling makes sense. Danske’s problem is it still doesn’t know how bad the problem really is.

Markets bet against U.S. leniency over Danske

14 Sep 2018

If the Danish bank’s fine for money laundering is in line with earlier transgressions by other banks, it would be manageable. But after a 28 percent drop in Danske shares this year, investors appear to be pricing in something worse.

Blackstone’s Baltic push can defy sketchy optics

13 Sep 2018

A consortium led by the buyout group is buying 60 pct of Baltic bank Luminor for 1 bln euros. It’s oddly timed, given high-profile money-laundering cases have tainted the local market. But Luminor looks cleaner than most and offers some cost-cutting opportunities.

Carlsberg’s drinking game victory looks temporary

16 Aug 2018

The Danish brewer’s second-quarter sales grew a better-than-expected 7.6 pct. The World Cup turned its big Russian business from a drag into a boon. While Carlsberg now trades at a premium to Heineken and AB InBev, less exposure to emerging markets means the bump is temporary.

Danske tries to cauterize money-laundering wound

18 Jul 2018

Giving away gross profit from suspicious Estonian transactions could cost the Copenhagen-based lender up to $234 mln, or 8 pct of forecast earnings for 2018. The pledge may draw the sting of punishment from Danish authorities. But the bigger financial threat comes from the U.S.