Denmark

Obesity drug giants risk devouring their own lunch

5 Feb 2025

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are delivering bumper sales thanks to demand for weight-loss drugs. But faster-than-expected take-up will also mean fewer people with diabetes. That will hurt growth in the two groups’ core businesses, with $53 bln of sales.

Orsted’s new skipper is stuck in same wind storm

31 Jan 2025

The $16 bln wind developer replaced CEO Mads Nipper with deputy Rasmus Errboe after writedowns on US investments. It may be too late to walk away from those projects. The new boss needs to better articulate the risks facing the group – and take steps to fix its balance sheet.

Davos presents elites with economic Rorschach Test

27 Jan 2025

Delegates in the Swiss ski resort hailed Donald Trump’s deregulatory plans and got starry-eyed about AI. Others worried about inflation, debt, and fossil fuels, while Europeans bemoaned their back yard. Assessing the “mood in Davos” reveals more about the observer than the world.

Orsted’s management discount is back

21 Jan 2025

The $16 bln Danish renewables group saw shares slump 15% after new writedowns. CEO Mads Nipper can’t control rising rates, or US disdain for offshore wind. But a valuation below its operating assets implies investors once again don’t rate Orsted’s scope to forecast rising costs.

Big Booze speeds towards low-growth tobacco status

7 Jan 2025

The US surgeon general wants health warnings on alcohol bottles. Declining drinking rates have already shrunk the valuations of brewers like Carlsberg to 12 times forward earnings, nearing tobacco levels. Higher-rated spirits groups like $70 bln Diageo may have further to fall.

Novo Nordisk weight-loss blow is warning for Lilly

20 Dec 2024

Shares of the $368 bln Ozempic maker fell up to 27% after trials of a critical medication disappointed. That will make it easier for upstarts like AstraZeneca to muscle into an increasingly competitive obesity market. It’s potentially bad news for market leader Eli Lilly too.

Green energy will be a smart contrarian trade

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s dislike of offshore wind and threats to axe subsidies imply the renewable sector is one to swerve in 2025. Yet the US president-elect is primarily focused on keeping energy costs low. If permitting gets sped up, Big Tech-driven demand could help green power too.

Obesity giants will begin $80 bln M&A face-off

17 Dec 2024

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will need to invest the war chests they are amassing from sales of weight-loss drugs. They could snap up rivals like Zealand Pharma, or forge into new areas, say by buying autoimmune player Argenx. Pressure to do deals raises the risk of overpaying.

Drink giants’ risky new plan: quantity not quality

1 Oct 2024

Liquor makers like $80 bln Diageo until recently focused on ‘premiumisation’, where customers consume less alcohol but pay up for fancy brands. With punters feeling the pinch, that strategy looks dicey. Yet flogging more cheap booze is optically awkward and financially painful.

Copycat drugmakers will be low-key obesity winners

25 Sep 2024

Sandoz and other generic drugmakers are preparing to make cheap versions of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drugs. They could grab a large chunk of a potentially $150 bln market. Unlike the Danish group and peer Eli Lilly, their valuations do not yet reflect the potential opportunity.

Germany gives DSV a sweet deal on freight takeover

12 Sep 2024

The Danish group will acquire Schenker, the logistics arm of indebted German railway operator Deutsche Bahn, for 14 bln euros, beating a higher CVC offer. Berlin may be hoping that an industry player will be a more stable owner. But DSV’s share price jump shows it got a bargain.

Mpox drugmaker’s shares may provide false comfort

16 Aug 2024

Bavarian Nordic, which makes a vaccine for the virus, gained $1 bln in value over the past week as the disease spread beyond Africa. The increase is equivalent to several million extra doses. That view, which implies a contained outbreak, may be too benign if mpox keeps mutating.

Past storms are still blowing against Orsted

15 Aug 2024

The Danish renewable energy firm has gained nearly 60% in market value since surprise US impairments shook confidence last year. Upcoming rate cuts can help but wind farm delays and supply chain risks remain. CEO Mads Nipper will find it hard to get the stock out of the doldrums.

Big Beer’s stumbles leave investors ice cold

14 Aug 2024

Heineken shares are down after it disappointed investors hoping for a sport-fuelled profit party. Rival Carlsberg’s valuation has fallen due to a $4 bln soft drinks takeover. For CEOs, emerging markets growth and deals in the right areas are the only way to add fizz to stocks.

Novo Nordisk obesity feast no longer a free lunch

18 Jul 2024

The $603 bln drug group’s shares have more than trebled since 2021 on the back of booming sales of weight-loss treatment Wegovy. To justify that, it will need to keep coming up with new, even better products, and fend off rivals like Pfizer. Neither looks certain.

Booze-free beverages are no small beer

11 Jul 2024

Carlsberg’s $4 bln deal to buy soft-drinks maker Britvic is just the latest foray by a big brewer into serving the alcohol-averse. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether it’s a seismic tobacco-like shift or a frothy attempt to fizz up profit margins.

Big Beer’s low-alcohol Plan B has too much froth

9 Jul 2024

Carlsberg, AB InBev and Asahi have set toppy targets for their teetotal products. Health concerns and Gen Z’s aversion to alcohol imply that’s a safe bet. But at $13 bln the market is still puny – and if the likes of Coca-Cola muscle in there will be a smaller barrel to share.

Carlsberg soft-drink deal packs an appealing punch

8 Jul 2024

The $18 bln brewer is scooping up J2O-maker Britvic for $4.2 bln. The Danish buyer’s shares have slumped since deal talks started, but investors’ nervousness is overdone. Expanding into non-alcoholic drinks makes sense, and the returns seem reasonable despite a fizzy deal price.

Britvic can swerve Carlsberg dilution

21 Jun 2024

The soft drinks maker rebuffed a $4 bln cash deal from the Danish beer giant. Carlsberg wants to boost its no-alcohol business, so may yet return with a more generous offer. But Britvic’s cocktail of geographic expansion and low-sugar drinks means it can also grow on its own.

Nordic $5 bln insurer M&A limits cross-border risk

17 Jun 2024

Finland’s $21 bln Sampo is buying Danish rival Topdanmark. Overseas deals can easily go awry, but Sampo is buying a group it already half-owns and paying in shares. More importantly, the target’s current valuation should make it possible for synergies to cover the premium.