China

How to navigate Trump’s trade wars

25 Feb 2025

The US president has slapped tariffs on Mexico, Canada, steel, aluminium, and is threatening more. Few have come into force, though. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Sam Lowe of Flint Global explains the different types of levies, and what they mean for global trade.

Deficit will push Hong Kong closer to the mainland

25 Feb 2025

The Asian hub's fiscal reserve has dropped 40% since 2020 due to shrinking revenue from land and property sales. The city is ramping up borrowing in response. China is a natural buyer of the debt, allowing Beijing to diversify its reserves and protect its gateway to the world.

Why China may struggle to unlock the power of AI

25 Feb 2025

Its fortunes as a great power will be shaped in part by the technology. Yet translating wins by innovators like DeepSeek and others into wider gains for the $18 trln economy will be challenged not just by the United States but also by Beijing’s own desire to maintain control.

Alibaba’s comeback has redeeming features

21 Feb 2025

The Chinese giant's market value is up 60% to $320 bln this year. The e-commerce unit is recovering, strengthening funding for its promising cloud and AI ventures. It vindicates boss Eddie Wu's decision to shelve a breakup. But fierce competition will keep margins under pressure.

China’s marriage aversion is two problems in one

20 Feb 2025

The 20% plunge in marriage registrations last year is a signal of the economic pain from a shortage of jobs and a property crisis. It will also drag down future births and housing demand. Beijing has a strong incentive to put family planning front and centre of its stimulus.

Xi Jinping’s graft crackdown is fight without end

19 Feb 2025

The Chinese leader’s 12-year campaign has disciplined 6 mln officials and taken down powerful foes. It has also frightened bureaucrats into paralysis, adding to the malaise in the world’s second-largest economy. Yet Xi’s aim of stamping out corruption compels him to keep going.

Beware of Chinese stocks AI siren song

18 Feb 2025

Xi Jinping's meeting with tech bosses caps a rally that added $210 bln of market value to Alibaba and Tencent. The president’s support for private firms builds on DeepSeek's success. It also precedes the next challenges: how to manage price wars and Beijing's strict AI rules.

China can steal a march on US tariff uncertainties

14 Feb 2025

Donald Trump’s trade war will take weeks or months to shape up. Rather than waiting for the dust to settle on the $600 bln relationship, rolling out bold stimulus to tackle domestic challenges is Beijing’s best course. A strong economy will shore up China's negotiating position.

Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

13 Feb 2025

President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may end Moscow’s war. For the EU this won’t mean lower defence spending. The likely end of the US security blanket, and an emboldened Russia, will force Europeans to accelerate their military overhaul.

Shein’s IPO haste implies an ill-fitting outcome

12 Feb 2025

The fast fashion retailer seems set on a $50 bln listing by mid-year. With the US applying new tariffs and trade tensions heating up, the normal banker advice would be to wait. If Shein’s motivation is to gain recognition, a cut-price valuation is the wrong way to get it.

Paris summits go from green accord to AI discord

11 Feb 2025

A decade ago, France’s capital saw the world unite to fight climate change. In 2025, the US has refused to sign even a vague pledge for ‘inclusive and sustainable AI’ at President Macron’s conflab. Washington is entitled to do as it likes, but the lack of consensus is striking.

China’s EV laggards grasp at a new roadmap

11 Feb 2025

State-backed carmakers Dongfeng and Changan may be about to merge. On paper, the duo could replace BYD as largest by vehicle sales. The country's industry is ripe for consolidation. But size alone won’t help navigate rapidly changing tastes, a price war and ailing partnerships.

Li clan’s Panama problem epitomises a discount

10 Feb 2025

The Hong Kong family’s CK Hutchison conglomerate operates ports at either end of the critical canal, which US President Donald Trump asserts is controlled by China. The association weighs on the $19 bln group’s value. Offloading stakes might help – but only up to a point.

US tariff posturing is dangerous game of chicken

6 Feb 2025

Donald Trump’s hastily enacted and retracted trade wars are ratcheting up global tensions as Europe, China and Latin American countries prepare to retaliate. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the motivation for trade wars and why there will be no winners.

China travel boom may be more of a minibreak

6 Feb 2025

Domestic travel is robust, and outbound traffic from the People's Republic could recover to pre-pandemic levels in the Year of the Snake. That's a boon to $50 bln Trip.com and peers. But a weak economy may not be able to sustain investors' wanderlust.

US tax weaponisation launches messy European fight

5 Feb 2025

President Trump has begun probes into “discriminatory” tax measures, like France’s 3% Big Tech duty. His retaliation may include hiking levies for foreign firms and wealthy investors in the US. But since Europe is unlikely to cave in on this issue, the crossfire will be intense.

Tariff whiplash fires up China stimulus games

4 Feb 2025

President Trump paused steep levies on Mexico and Canada but his aggression against allies puts a worst-case scenario for Beijing back on the table. Chinese policymakers can't avert disaster just by honouring its last trade truce with the US. They'll need to be unusually nimble.

Markets send Trump a risky message on tariffs

3 Feb 2025

The US president’s 25% levies against Canada and Mexico have prompted carmakers and other stocks to slump. But neither equity nor bond investors look to be yet pricing in a long-lasting trade war or inflationary spiral. That implies less pressure on Trump to be more conciliatory.

Power groups’ post-DeepSeek pain looks justified

3 Feb 2025

The Chinese OpenAI rival’s lower costs saw shares in the likes of $57 bln Vistra and $103 bln GE Vernova crater. Scope for demand from AI users to soar may explain why they have partly recovered. But the risk that innovation means less power is real, and warrants a discount.

Trump’s economic trench warfare needs an off-ramp

3 Feb 2025

The US president is betting his economy can weather a tariffs tit-for-tat better than Canada and Mexico. But it'll raise inflation for Americans, too, and it's hard to see how he wins. Even if the battle is short, Washington's poor treatment of allies will have lasting effects.