Bernanke should leave any new stimulus to Congress 24 Aug 2011 The anti-deflation rationale for the Fed’s last bout of bond-buying won’t wash this time. Anyway, its effectiveness was questionable. And the U.S. central bank is already in uncomfortably deep. Fiscal action might be equally unhelpful, but at least it’s easier to reverse.
BofA blues is bottling up U.S. credit 24 Aug 2011 The Fed still wants to keep credit as easy as it can. But worries, rational or not, over Bank of America’s stability are getting in the way. If credit investors continue to fear for the nation’s largest bank by assets, that will outweigh any policy options Ben Bernanke might try.
CBO deficit slash reveals DC financial wonderland 24 Aug 2011 Congress may have done a deal to cut costs, but the new, relatively upbeat 10-year prediction for U.S. finances also relies on some rosy long-term assumptions. Budget experts know next year’s numbers matter most. Washington policymakers need more focus on the here and now.
Aging population another headwind for U.S. stocks 24 Aug 2011 Meager economic growth is one thing. But share valuations could also suffer for a decade or more as retiring baby boomers sell off their equities. It’s one more reason for pension funds, younger savers and investors at large to make sure they aren’t expecting too much.
America’s too big to fail just keep getting bigger 23 Aug 2011 The FDIC’s latest quarterly roundup suggests, in aggregate, that the U.S. banking industry is recovering. But dig into the details, and it’s pretty clear that massive institutions are continuing to thrive at the expense of the small fry. That’s not necessarily healthy.
BofA shareholders resigned to life on skid row 23 Aug 2011 Fears of a dilutive capital hike may prove overblown. Even so, BofA’s long-running mortgage saga has moved a seemingly endless list of litigants ahead of equity investors in the pecking order. Until the claims are resolved, the stock price looks set to stay in the gutter.
Companies should resist buyback temptation 23 Aug 2011 Share repurchases are creeping back into fashion, and are easier to like when markets are on their knees. But boards have often sanctioned buying programmes that have destroyed value. Share buybacks make more sense in a bear market, but the investment case remains unconvincing.
Next wave of patent rulings could ease tech wars 23 Aug 2011 Google, Apple and others are spending billions on invention rights. But they’re really buying legal protection. That’s because federal judges have approved broadly defined patents, exposing firms to infringement claims. The courts need to sync up the law with the real world.
Private sector drag sheds harsh light on stimulus 23 Aug 2011 Because it’s included at cost, government spending increases GDP by definition. But as Washington wrote more checks in 2007-11, private sector output slowed down, suggesting a possible crowding-out effect. When the U.S. economy is sick, bigger government looks like bad medicine.
HP stock sell-off looks like overkill 19 Aug 2011 The tech giant has seen about a quarter of its market value, almost $16 bln, vaporized in two days. Shareholders have fled following another profit warning, a huge and pricey acquisition deal, and a strategic U-turn. That makes for plenty of warts - but HP now looks too cheap.
Texas governor unlikely small government champion 19 Aug 2011 Rick Perry likes to boast of the jobs created on his watch. Yet while he wants to make the federal government “inconsequential,” he has presided over more new government jobs per head than Washington. If nothing else, it’s a reminder that economics can’t be reduced to soundbites.
Mexico needs to open door to its oil wider 19 Aug 2011 Bringing foreign firms into a few wells is a positive, if overdue, development. But more radical action is needed if the country is to make the most of its reserves. Only juicier deals for outsiders and better management of its state monopoly Pemex will revive ailing output.
Rivals unlikely to crash HP’s punchy Autonomy deal 19 Aug 2011 Autonomy would be a nice-to-have for Oracle or IBM. But Hewlett-Packard’s $11.7 bln offer for the UK software group is already rich, and rivals don’t need Autonomy quite so badly. Add in falling markets and the ugly reaction of HP shares, and a bidding war doesn’t compute.
Downgrade of U.S. debt upgrades risk to raters 19 Aug 2011 Credit rating firms have somehow alienated both parties in Congress. And government investigations of S&P may spur legislative efforts. On partisan lines, these range from tightening Uncle Sam’s grip to removing his helpful imprimatur. Either result could change the rating game.
HP says goodbye Compaq, hello IBM 19 Aug 2011 The U.S. tech giant may spin off its PC unit and stop making some mobile devices. It has also offered to buy UK data search software group Autonomy for $10 bln. Leaving the cutthroat hardware market for higher margin software can work, as IBM shows. But it won’t be quick or easy.
High volatility the price for still unfixed system 18 Aug 2011 The tail-risk fear of a Lehman sequel in the euro zone has whipsawed stocks, bonds and just about every other market. Gloomy data on the U.S. economy didn’t help on Thursday. While policymakers and fundamentals alike offer no conviction, global volatility is set to stay high.
Upstart M&A boutiques earn place at fee table 18 Aug 2011 Two newish shops opened by Blair Effron and Frank Quattrone worked on Google’s $12.5 bln deal this week. Along with firms run by Ken Moelis and Joe Perella, this quartet is eating away at the fee pool of big Wall Street banks. Conflicts and cash should keep them nourished.
Is Hugo Chavez ahead of the investment curve? 17 Aug 2011 Venezuela plans to move billions of cash reserves from developed nations to BRIC countries, according to media reports. This may reflect politics, or the need to keep creditors sweet. But given U.S. and EU budget and bank woes, Chavez may not be alone seeking alternatives
Doubts over $29 bln pharmacy deal look overdone 17 Aug 2011 Based on the yawning 26 pct gap between the Express Scripts offer and where Medco shares trade - lower than even before the bid came along - investors are super-spooked about antitrust issues. The market pricing in zero chance of success makes it a cheap option to buy.
Targeting Sun Belt should be on Obama’s new list 17 Aug 2011 Swathes of the U.S. South and Southwest have replaced the Rust Belt as the nation’s economic runt. Housing-bust states like California and Nevada now have worse unemployment. The president’s fresh plans to jump-start the economy would do well to aim support at the region.