Americas

The power and peril of American economic warfare

12 Nov 2024

Successive US presidents have wielded sanctions and export controls against rival nations. Donald Trump promises further escalation. In this episode of the Big View podcast, political scientist Henry Farrell explains how weaponizing finance and technology can be self-defeating.

COP29 will highlight bifurcated energy transitions

12 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s election victory casts a pall over the UN climate confab in Baku. It will also make raising $1 trln a year from rich states to decarbonise the developing world even harder. But his return will also hasten a shift East and South in the fight against global warming.

Control of Congress will bolster second Trump term

11 Nov 2024

Winning the House of Representatives as well as the Senate would let the new US president build on his $4 trln 2017 tax cut and pass laws on immigration and healthcare. Republican infighting thwarted bigger changes last time. But the party is now more aligned with Trump’s agenda.

Trump’s ‘America First’ revival could backfire

11 Nov 2024

The returning president’s nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia will be minded to hedge their bets, ultimately benefiting China and Russia.

Reality-TV president will co-produce media shakeup

8 Nov 2024

Spotify star Joe Rogan and newspaper baron Jeff Bezos offered glimpses into how the industry is evolving. Broadcasters are also up against fickle consumers inundated by pricey streaming choices. The business models and deals taking shape can now expect input from Donald Trump.

Europe lacks scope for fiery Trump trade riposte

8 Nov 2024

With a self-styled tariff man in the White House, the bloc may face blanket export levies. A vast trade surplus, and reliance on the US for key goods like gas, limit the scope for Brussels to respond in kind. Plan B may be to placate Donald Trump by pledging to boost US imports.

ECB will fail to get out ahead of US trade war

8 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s return to the White House puts Europe in a bind. With the euro falling, slow growth and likely US tariffs, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde can help by slashing rates to 2.75% in December. But policymakers’ muddled priorities make that unlikely.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

Trump will speed China’s journey to self-reliance

8 Nov 2024

Consumption's 59% share of GDP is rising on weak investment. Tariffs threatened by the US president-elect will accelerate the shift to domestic demand. Premier Xi Jinping desires a China less dependent on foreign markets. He may get one, though more abruptly than he envisioned.

Fed’s victory lap runs into Trump-shaped detour

7 Nov 2024

The FOMC cut rates again, two days after the ex-president was voted back into office. His avowed higher tariffs and renewed tax cuts jeopardize the work that lowered inflation to 2%, alongside 4% unemployment. Threats to central bank independence also add to risks of stagflation.

Rubber meets road for divergent buyout-shop models

7 Nov 2024

Strong quarterly results and the US election lifted enthusiasm for Apollo, Blackstone, Carlyle and KKR. After pursuing different paths to gather nearly $3 trln of combined assets, however, their opportunities and risks vary. Those leveraged to insurance are under fresh pressure.

Vaccine makers exposed to political pathogen

7 Nov 2024

President-elect Donald Trump wants Robert Kennedy to ‘run wild’ on public health policy. Details, as usual, are sketchy, and it may be hard to put the anti-jab activist in an official administration role. Even with him as a senior adviser, though, Moderna and GSK lack immunity.

Trump 2.0: taxes, tensions, tariffs, turbulence

7 Nov 2024

In a decisive comeback victory for his third White House run, Donald Trump notched gains across a wide set of voters and issues. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the chaotic consequences now looming worldwide.

HSBC can stand strong in a fragmenting world

7 Nov 2024

The $170 bln bank is uniquely dependent on East-West linkages at a time when global tensions are rising. Yet it weathered the last US-China tit-for-tat fairly well. And supply-chain shifts could even boost the lender, if CEO Georges Elhedery can help it adapt to new trade flows.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

China wields weak hand in Trump’s Trade War II

7 Nov 2024

The country would suffer a severe blow if the self-styled ‘Tariff Man’ imposes a 60% US levy on Chinese goods. Trade tensions will be harder to de-escalate this time, and Beijing’s reliance on exports to offset slowing GDP growth leaves the $18 trln economy highly vulnerable.

Elon Musk’s biggest conflict is with Donald Trump

6 Nov 2024

The CEO was enriched Wednesday after shares of Tesla rose by $100 bln following Trump’s victory. From contracts to regulations, Musk’s political and business interests worryingly overlap. Eventually he could become the nexus of Chinese and US leaders’ fractious whims.

Trump win sends markets into parallel realities

6 Nov 2024

The Republican candidate’s clear election victory raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation, sparking euphoria in US stocks, crypto and the dollar. Yet soaring yields on 30-year Treasury bonds reflect fears of future fiscal trouble. Investors cherry-pick policies at their peril.

Europe is unprepared for the Trump storm

6 Nov 2024

The continent faces tariffs and wavering US defence commitments after the Republican candidate clinched the White House. The bloc’s already sluggish economies will suffer. Meanwhile, divided politics will hinder Europe’s capacity to deal with the shock.

Burberry buyer would need steel-plated trench coat

6 Nov 2024

Shares in the $4 bln UK luxury group rose after a website reported that Moncler was eyeing a bid. But the returns on offer look low, while boosting the brand will be costly. Possible suitors require deep pockets, and the patience to wait a long time for any kind of payback.