Americas

Novo Nordisk weight-loss blow is warning for Lilly

20 Dec 2024

Shares of the $368 bln Ozempic maker fell up to 27% after trials of a critical medication disappointed. That will make it easier for upstarts like AstraZeneca to muscle into an increasingly competitive obesity market. It’s potentially bad news for market leader Eli Lilly too.

Chinese investment banking will roar back in 2025

20 Dec 2024

In 2024 regulators throttled share sales they feared would worsen a stock rout, triggering a 90% drop in IPO fundraising from a peak in 2021. With markets stabilising, Beijing can open the taps, end the deals drought and get capital to growth-focused firms.

California will put secession back on the map

20 Dec 2024

Independence movements from Canada to Scotland have quieted, but Donald Trump’s return is bound to rile Golden State voters. A $4 trln economy bigger than India’s means separation would be messy. Divergent agendas and supportive polls, however, make a plebiscite hard to avoid.

Microsoft’s AI setback: an imaginary letter

20 Dec 2024

After rushing headlong into machine-learning chips, data centers and startups, the software titan is set to suffer from the frenzy it helped foment. Breakingviews speculates how boss Satya Nadella might break the bad news to investors about a drop in valuations and spending.

Adland’s main post-M&A tussle is for second place

19 Dec 2024

Omnicom and IPG are creating the world’s largest agency, but Publicis’ superior growth profile should keep it in pole position. UK group WPP risks winding up in third place. Yet that hinges on whether advertising’s big merger fast-tracks AI investment, or impedes it.

Brick phones will ring in an unlikely revival

19 Dec 2024

Nokia handsets of the early 2000s are appealing to a generation seeking a digital detox. The market, which is only 2% of US devices, is growing fast having doubled in a year. With the likes of Australia banning social media for under-16s, Apple and Samsung may pivot or lose out.

Luxury firms will warily cut prices to boost sales

19 Dec 2024

High-end goods cost 54% more than before Covid. Yet the likes of LVMH refuse to blame lower volumes on more expensive wares. The fact is that rich Chinese consumers care more about savings than status symbols. Sacrificing margins will be an uncomfortable but inevitable strategy.

Hot topics of 2024 will smoulder into new year

19 Dec 2024

Inflation in the United States, a struggling Chinese economy and Boeing’s existential challenges were among the stories that dominated this year. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why these issues – among others – will keep cropping up in 2025.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.

Watchdogs finally detect scent of hedge-fund risk

18 Dec 2024

The Financial Stability Board proposed ideas including leverage caps that may affect Ken Griffin’s Citadel and Israel Englander’s Millennium. The new US administration will balk. Yet with hedge fund borrowing surging to $5 trln, it’s worth fleshing out rules ahead of any blowup.

Donald Trump will meet his match in bond markets

18 Dec 2024

The president-elect’s bullying and bluster may steamroll any political resistance to tax cuts and tariff hikes. Like many world leaders before him, though, he’s about to feel the punch that debt buyers pack. They’ll beat back an inflationary agenda that imperils US finances.

Savvy US green investor merits White House backing

17 Dec 2024

Power provider PG&E is due a record $15 bln from a controversial Energy Department loan program for clean energy projects. Donald Trump mostly mothballed the office during his first term, but its returns are impressive. Elon Musk knows the value, too: Tesla was a big beneficiary.

SoftBank’s $100 bln US pledge is doubly fanciful

17 Dec 2024

In 2016 Masayoshi Son offered to invest $50 bln stateside. Now the Japanese group’s founder has promised Donald Trump twice that sum, despite having barely a quarter of it at his disposal. It will be hard to make up the difference without selling shares in his crown jewel, Arm.

Capping credit card rates is only half a solution

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump pledged to limit interest on plastic at 10%, eliciting howls from banks of a crunch on consumers. Delinquencies are up as charges have soared. But a plan that doesn’t also target, say, 400% APR payday loans could push poorer borrowers into something worse.

Green energy will be a smart contrarian trade

17 Dec 2024

Donald Trump’s dislike of offshore wind and threats to axe subsidies imply the renewable sector is one to swerve in 2025. Yet the US president-elect is primarily focused on keeping energy costs low. If permitting gets sped up, Big Tech-driven demand could help green power too.

Obesity giants will begin $80 bln M&A face-off

17 Dec 2024

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk will need to invest the war chests they are amassing from sales of weight-loss drugs. They could snap up rivals like Zealand Pharma, or forge into new areas, say by buying autoimmune player Argenx. Pressure to do deals raises the risk of overpaying.

Why private credit is shrinking as it booms

17 Dec 2024

Non-bank lenders, sitting atop $2 trln in assets, keep taking more of the market away from the traditional titans of Wall Street. Yet the industry is now rapidly consolidating. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Marc Lipschultz, co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, explains why.

Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance

16 Dec 2024

Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.

OpenAI IPO would create the next hot meme stock

16 Dec 2024

Sam Altman’s $157 bln ChatGPT creator looks increasingly like a money pit in need of constant funding. Elon Musk’s Tesla has shown that retail investors can support the stock price of a buzzy brand. An ongoing cleanup of the company’s unusual governance structure would help too.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.