Considered View

China will struggle to deal with its overcapacity

8 Apr 2025

Exports will be squashed with or without the US threat of an extra 50% tariff. Chinese consumers cannot absorb the slack. If Beijing responds by lowering trade barriers with the rest of the world, its domestic problem will be worse. The case for boosting fiscal spending is solid.

India’s trade deal frenzy offers a Trump hedge

8 Apr 2025

The world's fifth-largest economy is negotiating with the EU and UK, and it could enter a pact with a China-backed bloc too. The outreach will protect India from future trade wars, even though it may emerge as a top beneficiary from the current US tariff onslaught.

Newsmax mini-IPO foments financial delusions

7 Apr 2025

The unprofitable conservative news network debuted last week at $10 a share, soared past $200 and settled back around $50. It’s fetching 30 times sales, and at some $6 bln, is now worth nearly as much as the New York Times. Alternative facts sometimes extend beyond just politics.

Markets’ tariff carnage can get much, much worse

7 Apr 2025

A rout that wiped $7 trln of value from US stocks after President Trump unveiled steep trade levies may just be the start. Earnings forecasts are tumbling as prognosticators parse out the damage, but real pain comes if shell-shocked traders stop valuing them so highly.

Sickly dollar leaves shrinking pool of safe havens

7 Apr 2025

Donald Trump’s tariffs have dented the US currency, undermining traders’ favoured port in a storm. The Swiss franc and Japanese yen are benefitting from the dash for safety, while gold is the classic refuge. Still, in a global downturn there are few places for investors to hide.

Oil price has flaky defences against further falls

7 Apr 2025

Crude values have fallen 16% to $63 a barrel since last week’s US tariff bombshell. Geopolitical shocks and coordinated producer cuts offer ways to stop the rot. But President Trump’s preference for low oil prices, plus OPEC indiscipline, are reasons to brace for fresh declines.

Yuan is strategic barometer for China post-tariffs

7 Apr 2025

Beijing is weakening its currency slowly, indicating some hope for tariff negotiations with the US. Limiting the downward pull of the yuan will also smooth talks with Asian peers as it seeks a functioning network of trading partners in a post-tariff world.

Vietnam faces some very dark days ahead

7 Apr 2025

Officials visiting the US this week must convince Washington to slash a 46% tariff or face a big shock in the Southeast Asian economy. Hanoi can trim the $123 bln trade surplus a bit but its power to avert a crisis is limited so long as it is caught between the US and China.

Trade war brinkmanship multiplies economic damage

4 Apr 2025

While some countries seek to negotiate lower tariffs, China ratcheted up pressure with a 34% levy on US goods. Donald Trump’s insistence that he won’t blink complicates a compromise. Despite another selloff, investors still underestimate the risk of a long-term catastrophe.

Trump trade shock boosts the drab autarky trade

4 Apr 2025

Tariff chaos dragged down the S&P 500, yet recent laggards like tiremaker Goodyear or spud seller Lamb Weston have risen. Protectionism may not clinch industrial rebirth, but as once-easy bets on tech hype stall, a hunt for safe harbors will revive long-suffering value investors.