Columns

Donald Trump’s boomerang will hit the US hard

24 Mar 2025

The president’s bullying of allies is damaging international trust. Friendly countries no longer want to depend on a wayward superpower and will seek greater autonomy in defence, technology, energy and finance. Though they will still do deals with the US, the backlash will hurt.

Big state backlash may pay biggest dividends in UK

20 Mar 2025

Elected leaders from Argentina to the US are pledging to cut spending, shrink the state, and cut red tape. Despite similar rhetoric their priorities are very different, as are the potential rewards. In the developed world, Britain’s approach has the best chance of success.

Trump’s confidence-sapping policies echo the 1930s

13 Mar 2025

Unpredictable tariffs have pushed measures of US economic uncertainty to record highs. Such periods are often associated with weak economic growth. Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms failed because they discouraged investment. The current president is making the same mistake.

Development aid’s future is hiding in plain sight

6 Mar 2025

Upheaval unleashed by President Donald Trump threatens to extinguish assistance to poorer countries. If overseas aid is to survive, it must find a way of marrying idealism with strategic utility in a more multipolar world. The EU’s eastern expansion is a model worth imitating.

Climate policy requires a more realistic approach

27 Feb 2025

Despite trillions of dollars spent on renewable power, hydrocarbons account for over 80% of the world’s primary energy. Financial markets have lost confidence in the pursuit of net zero. The best governments can do is encourage the search for viable new electricity sources.

How to raise $420 bln a year for Europe’s defence

24 Feb 2025

The partial breakdown in the transatlantic alliance means the continent may need to double its defence spending. The money will have to come from a mixture of national budgets, European Union funds and perhaps a new vehicle. Many sacred cows will be slaughtered on the way.

New US Asia pivot is better timed than the last

20 Feb 2025

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wants to focus on ‘peer competitor’ China. Past administrations failed to do the same. But with the People’s Republic looking increasingly financially constrained, now might be a more opportune moment in which to contest Beijing’s global influence.

Buyout firms’ equity-debt double act is creaking

14 Feb 2025

Groups such as Blackstone and Apollo spent trillions of dollars buying companies when interest rates were low. They also provided loans to buyouts. As borrowing costs have risen, tensions between the two are mounting. Private credit’s future growth will depend on other borrowers.

The end of the West may be nigh

10 Feb 2025

China’s rise had already put the world’s rich democracies on the defensive. Now Donald Trump is swinging a wrecking ball at the alliances, values and institutions that underpin Western power. While it may be possible to salvage something, the omens are not good.

AI’s civil war will force investors to pick sides

7 Feb 2025

In 17th century England, royalist Cavaliers clashed with parliamentarian Roundheads. The future of artificial intelligence faces a similar ideological schism. The release of Chinese startup DeepSeek’s model requires money managers to make a defining choice about the technology.