Columns

Putin faces hard choices if Ukraine war drags on

9 Dec 2024

Though Russia can probably keep fighting for a long time, the costs will mount – especially if inflation rises or the oil price falls. A credible Western plan to support Kyiv could bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and help secure a decent ceasefire.

Russian assets could be Trump card in Kyiv endgame

25 Nov 2024

The incoming US president wants to end the Ukraine war quickly, in part because he does not want to pay to defend the country. If Europe promised to find the cash – perhaps from Moscow’s $300 bln frozen reserves – Donald Trump might hold out for a better deal with Vladimir Putin.

There are few good ways out of China’s stock slump

21 Nov 2024

Despite a recent bounce driven by stimulus hopes, the country’s benchmark equity index is down by nearly a third in the past three-and-a-half years. Though valuations look cheap, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could lead to even worse outcomes for investors.

Trump’s ‘America First’ revival could backfire

11 Nov 2024

The returning president’s nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia will be minded to hedge their bets, ultimately benefiting China and Russia.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

Gold surge adds glitter to tarnished miners

31 Oct 2024

The yellow metal is up 35% this year as investors fret about inflation. Gold miners like Newmont and Barrick have repeatedly failed to capitalise on the ore’s rising value. But new-found financial discipline and modest valuations present investors with a rare opportunity.

Many roadblocks delay journey to zero carbon world

28 Oct 2024

While solar power and battery supply have grown massively, the same is not true of electricity grids, green hydrogen and carbon removal. Money is more expensive. This means demand for oil, gas and coal has not yet peaked. The setback will cost the planet dearly.

Why stablecoins will entrench dollar’s supremacy

25 Oct 2024

A Russian plan to break the greenback’s grip met a cool reception at the BRICS summit in Kazan. The more important monetary news was Stripe’s $1 bln acquisition of digital-currency group Bridge. Dollar-pegged blockchain currency will keep Uncle Sam on top of the monetary order.

Inflation is not dead, it’s just resting

18 Oct 2024

Annual price increases are returning to the subdued 2% level targeted by many central banks. Official interest rates are falling too. Yet there’s a long history of policymakers prematurely celebrating the end of inflation. The experience of the 1970s offers a cautionary tale.

Old theories offer new insight into global rivalry

14 Oct 2024

The geographer Halfold Mackinder in 1904 proposed that future strife would revolve around control of Eurasia. Though the modern world is very different, it’s one way to understand conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the showdown between the United States and China.