Columns

Time for the rest of the West to club together

13 Apr 2025

Europe, Japan and Canada can no longer rely on the United States. They need to cut their dependency on it while not becoming reliant on China. That means weaning themselves off the dollar, cooperating in trade and defence, and reaching out to emerging economies like India.

There’s no easy escape from the US bubble economy

11 Apr 2025

The United States depends heavily on financial activity and debt, supported by foreign investors. Though Donald Trump has paused punitive tariffs he seems determined to change economic course. As Japan discovered three decades ago, deflating a bubble involves widespread pain.

Now is the time for a bold new UK-EU relationship

7 Apr 2025

As the US strains transatlantic ties, the United Kingdom and European Union have much to gain from joining forces. A security pact spanning economics, energy, the environment, tech and finance - as well as defence - would match the occasion. The main obstacle is lack of vision.

Shifting world order suits ‘inbetweener’ economies

4 Apr 2025

The showdown between the US and China means emerging markets on good terms with both have unique investor appeal. During the Cold War, non-aligned countries learned the opportunity and risk of playing both sides. Yet the biggest geopolitical arbitrage may be closer to home.

King Dollar’s long reign is set to continue

28 Mar 2025

President Donald Trump’s trade wars raise new concerns about the US dollar’s future as a reserve currency. Members of his administration are also ambivalent about the greenback’s status. Yet the dollar has defied doom-mongers for half a century. It will not be easily dethroned.

Donald Trump’s boomerang will hit the US hard

24 Mar 2025

The president’s bullying of allies is damaging international trust. Friendly countries no longer want to depend on a wayward superpower and will seek greater autonomy in defence, technology, energy and finance. Though they will still do deals with the US, the backlash will hurt.

Big state backlash may pay biggest dividends in UK

20 Mar 2025

Elected leaders from Argentina to the US are pledging to cut spending, shrink the state, and cut red tape. Despite similar rhetoric their priorities are very different, as are the potential rewards. In the developed world, Britain’s approach has the best chance of success.

Trump’s confidence-sapping policies echo the 1930s

13 Mar 2025

Unpredictable tariffs have pushed measures of US economic uncertainty to record highs. Such periods are often associated with weak economic growth. Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms failed because they discouraged investment. The current president is making the same mistake.

Development aid’s future is hiding in plain sight

6 Mar 2025

Upheaval unleashed by President Donald Trump threatens to extinguish assistance to poorer countries. If overseas aid is to survive, it must find a way of marrying idealism with strategic utility in a more multipolar world. The EU’s eastern expansion is a model worth imitating.

Climate policy requires a more realistic approach

27 Feb 2025

Despite trillions of dollars spent on renewable power, hydrocarbons account for over 80% of the world’s primary energy. Financial markets have lost confidence in the pursuit of net zero. The best governments can do is encourage the search for viable new electricity sources.